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The optimisation rule for investment in mining projects

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  • Foo, Nam
  • Bloch, Harry
  • Salim, Ruhul

Abstract

Investment in mining projects involves significant uncertainty. Project investment is usually high risk, irreversible and challenged by major economic factors. Mining commodity prices in particular always show greater volatility than any other primary products. The variation of these prices is critical in the investment decision of whether the project should go ahead, be abandoned or be delayed. This paper examines the impact of mineral price uncertainty on mining investment decisions using examples of projects in the Asia-Pacific region. Applying the mean reversion (MR) model, the commodity trigger value for investment decisions in each project is determined in the context of operational flexibilities. The findings indicate it is sometimes better to wait for a more suitable time to invest.

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  • Foo, Nam & Bloch, Harry & Salim, Ruhul, 2018. "The optimisation rule for investment in mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 123-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:123-132
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.11.005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tomáš Slacík, 2022. "The e-motion of car manufacturing in CESEE: the road ahead," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/22, pages 31-46.
    3. Ardian, Aldin & Kumral, Mustafa, 2020. "Incorporating stochastic correlations into mining project evaluation using the Jacobi process," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Maryke C. Rademeyer, 2021. "Investigating the outcome for South African coal supply to the domestic market when faced with declining demand for exported coal," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(3), pages 441-453, October.
    5. Hammad Tariq Janjuhah & Muhammad Ishfaque & Muhammad Ifzal Mehmood & George Kontakiotis & Syed Muzyan Shahzad & Stergios D. Zarkogiannis, 2021. "Integrated Underground Mining Hazard Assessment, Management, Environmental Monitoring, and Policy Control in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Jin-Biao Lu & Zhi-Jiang Liu & Dmitry Tulenty & Liudmila Tsvetkova & Sebastian Kot, 2021. "RETRACTED: Implementation of Stochastic Analysis in Corporate Decision-Making Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-16, May.
    7. Francisco J. Díaz-Borrego & María del Mar Miras-Rodríguez & Bernabé Escobar-Pérez, 2019. "Looking for Accurate Forecasting of Copper TC/RC Benchmark Levels," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-16, April.
    8. Nam Foo & Ruhul Salim, 2022. "The evolution of mining employment during the resource boom and bust cycle in Australia," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(2), pages 309-324, June.
    9. Klayme, Tania & Gokmenoglu, Korhan K. & Rustamov, Bezhan, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, COVID-19 and corporate investment: Evidence from the gold mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    10. Maryke C. Rademeyer & Richard C. A. Minnitt & Rosemary M. S. Falcon, 2020. "A characterisation of the mechanisms transforming capital investment into productive capacity in mining projects with long lead-times," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(3), pages 349-357, October.
    11. Dong, Weijian & Chen, Kanxiang & Liu, Xiaojun, 2023. "Role of regional trade agreements in enhancing investments in mineral resources projects in ASEAN," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real options; Asia-Pacific; Investment decisions; Uncertainty; Critical value;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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