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Labor-Market Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles

Author

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  • Yongsung Chang
  • Jay H. Hong
  • Marios Karabarbounis

Abstract

The standard theory of household-portfolio choice is hard to reconcile with the following facts: (i) Households hold a small amount of equity despite the higher average rate of return. (ii) The share of risky assets increases with the age of the household. (iii) The share of risky assets is disproportionately larger for richer households. We develop a life-cycle model with age-dependent unemployment risk and gradual learning about the income profile that can address all three puzzles. Young workers, on average asset poor, face larger labor-market uncertainty because of high unemployment risk and imperfect knowledge about their earnings ability. This labor-market uncertainty prevents them from taking too much risk in the financial market. As the labor-market uncertainty is gradually resolved over time, workers can take more financial risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongsung Chang & Jay H. Hong & Marios Karabarbounis, 2014. "Labor-Market Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles," Working Paper 14-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:14-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yongsung Chang & Jay Hong & Marios Karabarbounis & Yicheng Wang & Tao Zhang, 2022. "Income Volatility and Portfolio Choices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 65-90, April.
    2. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2021. "Life-cycle welfare losses from rules-of-thumb asset allocation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Hubar, Sylwia & Koulovatianos, Christos & Li, Jian, 2020. "The role of labor-income risk in household risk-taking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2024. "Life-cycle risk-taking with personal disaster risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 378-396.
    5. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap," Working Papers 332, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. Yongsung Chang & Jay Hong & Marios Karabarbounis & Yicheng Wang & Tao Zhang, 2022. "Income Volatility and Portfolio Choices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 65-90, April.
    7. Du, You, 2023. "Health investment and medical risk: New explanations of the portfolio puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Fong, Joelle H. & Koh, Benedict SK. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rohwedder, Susann, 2019. "Financial literacy and suboptimal financial decisions at older ages," CFS Working Paper Series 630, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Fong, Joelle H. & Koh, Benedict S.K. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rohwedder, Susann, 2021. "Financial literacy and financial decision-making at older ages," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Mann, Katja & Davenport, Margaret, 2016. "Demography, Capital Flows and Asset Allocation over the Life-cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145948, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Jung, Daesun & Kim, Young Sik, 2020. "Income volatility, household leverage, and consumption in Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    12. Chen, Guodong & Lee, Minjoon & Nam, Tong-yob, 2020. "Forced retirement risk and portfolio choice," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 293-315.
    13. Gao, Xiang & Sun, Li, 2021. "Modeling retirees’ investment behaviors in the presence of health expenditure risk and financial crisis risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 442-454.
    14. Ivo Bakota, 2020. "Capital Income Taxation with Portfolio Choice," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp668, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Mark Huggett & Greg Kaplan, 2016. "How Large is the Stock Component of Human Capital?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 21-51, October.
    16. Park, Jin Seok & Suh, Donghyun, 2019. "Uncertainty and household portfolio choice : Evidence from South Korea," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 21-24.
    17. You Du & Weige Huang, 2023. "Portfolio Allocation with Medical Expenditure Risk-A Life Cycle Model and Machine Learning Analysis," Journal of Regional Economics, Anser Press, vol. 2(1), pages 53-68, October.
    18. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2019. "Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-340.
    19. Minsu Chang, 2024. "Changing Marital Transitions and Homeownership Among Young Households," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 52, pages 46-63, April.
    20. Kartik Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Urvi Neelakantan, 2023. "Stock Market Participation: The Role of Human Capital," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 1-18, January.
    21. Christos I. Giannikos & Efstathia D. Korkou, 2023. "Gender and Risk-Taking in the Building of U.S. Retirement Wealth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 259-274, December.
    22. Julio Gálvez & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2022. "Richer earnings dynamics, consumption and portfolio choice over the life cycle," Working Papers 2241, Banco de España.
    23. Cai, Xiqian & Cheng, Zhengquan & Li, Dongxu, 2024. "Balancing against geopolitical risk: Household investment portfolios during the U.S.-China trade war," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    24. Wang, Yuanping & Wang, Dongfang & Hou, Chunxiao, 2022. "Information acquisition and asset allocation with unknown income growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    25. Christos I. Giannikos & Efstathia Korkou, 2022. "Gender Differences in Risk-Taking Investment Strategies in Defined Contribution Plans," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio Choice; Labor-Market Uncertainty; Learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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