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Exchange rate dynamics and monetary spillovers with imperfect financial markets

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Abstract

We use a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions and dollar debt in balance sheets to investigate the foreign effects of U.S. monetary policy. Financial amplification works through an endogenous deviation from uncovered interest parity (UIP) arising from limits to arbitrage in private intermediation. Combined with dollar trade invoicing, this mechanism leads to large spillovers from U.S. policy, consistent with the evidence. Foreign monetary policies that attempt to stabilize the exchange rate reduce welfare and may exacerbate exchange rate volatility. We document empirically a link between UIP deviations and measures of credit market frictions, as predicted by the model.

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  • Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and monetary spillovers with imperfect financial markets," Staff Reports 849, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:849
    Note: Previous title: “Balance Sheets, Exchange Rates, and International Monetary Spillovers”
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    Cited by:

    1. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Institutional investors, the dollar, and U.S. credit conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 198-220.
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Cavallino, Paolo & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios & Zhu, Feng, 2021. "Foreign-currency exposures and the financial channel of exchange rates: Eroding monetary policy autonomy in small open economies?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    6. Mary Everett & Jakob de Haan & David‐Jan Jansen & Peter McQuade & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Mortgage lending, monetary policy, and prudential measures in small euro‐area economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 117-143, February.
    7. Moro, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "The external financial spillovers of CBDCs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2022. "The effects of permanent monetary shocks on exchange rates and uncovered interest rate differentials," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Ioana Manuela Mîndrican, 2023. "Monetary policy measures and strategies in the context of the adoption of the euro currency," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 14(8), pages 84-97, May.
    12. Camila Casas & Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2020. "The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 1111, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    14. Harrison, Andre & Reed, Robert R., 2023. "International capital flows, liquidity risk, and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Paolo Cavallino & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "Capital flows and monetary policy trade-offs in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 1032, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 26297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Choi, Woo Jin, 2020. "Effects of US Monetary Policy on Gross Capital Flows: Cases in Korea," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 42(4), pages 59-90.
    18. repec:fst:rfsisf:v:8:y:2023:i:14:p:84-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial frictions; U.S. monetary policy spillovers; currency premium; uncovered interest rate parity condition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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