IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/2014-034.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The role of jumps in volatility spillovers in foreign exchange markets: meteor shower and heat waves revisited

Author

Abstract

This paper extends the previous literature on geographic (heat waves) and intertemporal (meteor showers) foreign exchange volatility transmission to characterize the role of jumps and cross-rate propagation. We employ heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models to capture the quasi-long-memory properties of volatility and the Shapley-Owen R2 measure to quantify the contributions of components. We conclude that meteor showers are more influential than heat waves, that jumps play a modest but significant role in volatility transmission and that significant, bidirectional cross-rate volatility transmission exists. Finally, we illustrate what types of news weaken or strengthen heat wave and meteor shower effects with sensitivity analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome Lahaye & Christopher J. Neely, 2014. "The role of jumps in volatility spillovers in foreign exchange markets: meteor shower and heat waves revisited," Working Papers 2014-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2014-034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2014/2014-034.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana-Maria Dumitru & Giovanni Urga, 2011. "Identifying Jumps in Financial Assets: A Comparison Between Nonparametric Jump Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 242-255, October.
    2. Corsi, Fulvio & Pirino, Davide & Renò, Roberto, 2010. "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 276-288, December.
    3. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
    4. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    6. Phylaktis, Kate & Chen, Long, 2009. "Price discovery in foreign exchange markets: A comparison of indicative and actual transaction prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 640-654, September.
    7. Liu, Lily Y. & Patton, Andrew J. & Sheppard, Kevin, 2015. "Does anything beat 5-minute RV? A comparison of realized measures across multiple asset classes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 293-311.
    8. Cecilia Mancini, 2009. "Non‐parametric Threshold Estimation for Models with Stochastic Diffusion Coefficient and Jumps," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(2), pages 270-296, June.
    9. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
    10. Hogan, Kedreth Jr. & Melvin, Michael T., 1994. "Sources of meteor showers and heat waves in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3-4), pages 239-247, November.
    11. Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Laurent, Sébastien & Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Which continuous-time model is most appropriate for exchange rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 256-268.
    12. repec:hal:journl:peer-00741630 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 893-921, September.
    14. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    15. Souček, Michael & Todorova, Neda, 2014. "Realized volatility transmission: The role of jumps and leverage effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 111-115.
    16. P.J. Rousseeuw & A.M. Leroy, 1988. "A robust scale estimator based on the shortest half," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 42(2), pages 103-116, June.
    17. Richard T. Baillie & Tim Bollerslev, 1991. "Intra-Day and Inter-Market Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 565-585.
    18. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:242-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 1997. "The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 317-340, December.
    20. Michael Melvin & Bettina Peiers Melvin, 2003. "The Global Transmission of Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 670-679, August.
    21. Boudt, Kris & Croux, Christophe & Laurent, Sébastien, 2011. "Robust estimation of intraweek periodicity in volatility and jump detection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 353-367, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hui Qu & Tianyang Wang & Peng Shangguan & Mengying He, 2024. "Revisiting the puzzle of jumps in volatility forecasting: The new insights of high‐frequency jump intensity," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 218-251, February.
    3. Su, Fei & Wang, Xinyi & Yuan, Yulin, 2022. "The intraday dynamics and intraday price discovery of bitcoin," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Clements, Adam & Liao, Yin, 2017. "Forecasting the variance of stock index returns using jumps and cojumps," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 729-742.
    5. Rifa Atrous & Ezzeddine Abaoub, 2024. "The Home Bias: Evolution, Determinants, and Financial Crises," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(7), pages 1-60, July.
    6. Su, Fei, 2021. "Conditional volatility persistence and volatility spillovers in the foreign exchange market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Fei Su, 2018. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2018, January-A.
    8. Su, Fei & Zhang, Jingjing, 2018. "Global price discovery in the Australian dollar market and its determinants," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 35-55.
    9. Weijia Peng & Chun Yao, 2022. "Co-Jumps, Co-Jump Tests, and Volatility Forecasting: Monte Carlo and Empirical Evidence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, July.
    10. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Chorro, Christophe & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    4. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-02505861, HAL.
    5. Yao, Wenying & Tian, Jing, 2015. "The role of intra-day volatility pattern in jump detection: empirical evidence on how financial markets respond to macroeconomic news announcements," Working Papers 2015-05, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    6. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Dumitru, Ana-Maria & Hizmeri, Rodrigo & Izzeldin, Marwan, 2019. "Forecasting the Realized Variance in the Presence of Intraday Periodicity," EconStor Preprints 193631, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Clements, Adam & Liao, Yin, 2017. "Forecasting the variance of stock index returns using jumps and cojumps," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 729-742.
    10. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02505861, HAL.
    11. Caporin, Massimiliano & Kolokolov, Aleksey & Renò, Roberto, 2014. "Multi-jumps," MPRA Paper 58175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Tim Bollerslev & Jia Li & Andrew J. Patton & Rogier Quaedvlieg, 2020. "Realized Semicovariances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1515-1551, July.
    15. Fei Su, 2018. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2018, January-A.
    16. Yi, Chae-Deug, 2020. "Jump probability using volatility periodicity filters in US Dollar/Euro exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. Jan Hanousek & Jan Novotný, 2014. "Cenové skoky během finanční nejistoty: od intuice k regulační perspektivě [Price Jumps during Financial Crisis: From Intuition to Financial Regulation]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 32-48.
    18. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Hvozdyk, Lyudmyla & Lahaye, Jérôme, 2014. "System-wide tail comovements: A bootstrap test for cojump identification on the S&P 500, US bonds and currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 147-174.
    19. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    20. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Bertrand Candelon & Sébastien Laurent, 2016. "Do We Need High Frequency Data to Forecast Variances?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 135-174.
    21. Prosper Dovonon & Sílvia Gonçalves & Ulrich Hounyo & Nour Meddahi, 2019. "Bootstrapping High-Frequency Jump Tests," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 793-803, April.
    22. Jean-Yves Gnabo & J�rôme Lahaye & S�bastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    intraday; volatility; euro; exchange rates; transmission; dollar.; jumps; periodicity; yen; meteor shower; realized; heat wave;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2014-034. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.