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Does idiosyncratic risk matter: another look

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  • Hui Guo
  • Robert Savickas

Abstract

We show that the equal-weighted average stock volatility analyzed by Goyal and Santa-Clara (GS, 2003) forecasts stock returns because of its co-movements with stock market volatility. Moreover, contrary to the positive relation hypothesized by GS and many others, we find that the value-weighted average stock volatility is negatively related to future stock returns when combined with stock market volatility. This puzzling result reflects the fact that the alue-weighted average stock volatility is negatively correlated with the consumption-wealth ratio, and its predictive power vanishes if we control for the latter in the forecasting equation. The idiosyncratic volatility proposed by GS thus provides no information beyond the forecasting variables advocated by Guo (2003)2:26 PM 10/17/03

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2003. "Does idiosyncratic risk matter: another look," Working Papers 2003-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-025
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2003.025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
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    3. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "There is a risk-return trade-off after all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 509-548, June.
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    5. Lehmann, Bruce N., 1990. "Residual risk revisited," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 71-97.
    6. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
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    10. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    11. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Timotheos Angelidis & Nikolaos Tessaromatis, 2007. "Does idiosyncratic risk matter? Evidence from European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 125-137.
    2. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2008. "Idiosyncratic volatility and equity returns: UK evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 539-556, June.

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