Implications of real-time data for forecasting and modeling expectations
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002.
"Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P A, 1998.
"Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts,"
Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 21-40, April.
- Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 1996. "Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 1997. "Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts," Research Working Paper 97-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Tuliakova, I. R. & Chesnokova, M.S., 2014. "Modern Tools Of Product Promotion Of Military-Industrial Complex," Annals of marketing-mba, Department of Marketing, Marketing MBA (RSconsult), vol. 3, November.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Kozicki, Sharon, 2002. "Comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 541-557, December.
- Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014.
"Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
- repec:bny:wpaper:0057 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005.
"The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Working Paper Series 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2005. "The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/24, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Working Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
- John C. Williams & Athanasios Orphanides, 2004. "The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 144, Society for Computational Economics.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 804, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005.
"Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2019. "The Taylor principles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
- Jon Ellingsen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020.
"News Media vs. FRED-MD for Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
8639, CESifo.
- Jon Ellingsen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Paper 2020/14, Norges Bank.
- Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015.
"Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
- Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper 39353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
- Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan-Miguel, 2013.
"On the informational role of term structure in the US monetary policy rule,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1852-1871.
- María-Dolores, Ramon & Vázquez, Jesús & Londoño, Juan M., 2009. "On the informational role of term structure in the US monetary policy rule," UMUFAE Economics Working Papers 4699, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia.
- Vázquez Pérez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño Yarce, Juan Miguel, 2010. "On the Informational Role of Term Structure in the U.S. Monetary Policy Rule," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
- Jesús Vázquez & Ramón María-Dolores & Juan-Miguel Londoño, 2009. "On the informational role of term structure in the U.S. monetary policy rule," Working Papers 0919, Banco de España.
- Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015.
"Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Capistrán, Carlos, 2008.
"Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November.
- Carmona, Carlos Capistran, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v28v0b6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics.
- Capistrán Carlos, 2006. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Working Papers 2006-14, Banco de México.
- Gibbs, Christopher G. & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2024.
"Conditionally optimal weights and forward-looking approaches to combining forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1734-1751.
- Christopher G. Gibbs & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Conditionally Optimal Weights and Forward-Looking Approaches to Combining Forecasts," Discussion Papers 2017-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002.
"The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Marie Bessec, 2015. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed frequency data," Post-Print hal-01276824, HAL.
- Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "Do professional forecasters trust in Taylor-type rules? -- Evidence from the Wall Street Journal poll," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 829-838, March.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013.
"Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
- Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.
More about this item
Keywords
Forecasting; Real-time data;NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ETS-2002-04-25 (Econometric Time Series)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp01-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.