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The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination

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Abstract

We document the exchange rate hedging channel that connects country-level measures of net external financial imbalances with exchange rates. In times of market distress, countries with large positive external imbalances (e.g. Japan) experience domestic currency appreciation, and crucially, forward exchange rates appreciate relatively more than the spot after adjusting for interest rate differentials. Countries with large negative foreign asset positions experience the opposite currency movements. We present a model demonstrating that exchange rate hedging coupled with intermediary constraints can explain these observed relationships between net external imbalances and spot and forward exchange rates. We find empirical support for this currency hedging channel of exchange rate determination in both the conditional and unconditional moments of exchange rates, option prices, large institutional investors' disclosure of hedging activities, and central bank swap line usage during the COVID-19 market turmoil.

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  • Gordon Y. Liao & Tony Zhang, 2020. "The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 1283, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1283
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2020.1283
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    Cited by:

    1. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Breen, John David & Hu, Liang, 2021. "The predictive content of oil price and volatility: New evidence on exchange rate forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2022. "Central bank swap arrangements in the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Mark Choi & Linda S. Goldberg & Robert Lerman & Fabiola Ravazzolo, 2021. "COVID Response: The Fed’s Central Bank Swap Lines and FIMA Repo Facility," Staff Reports 983, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Ricardo Correa & Wenxin Du & Gordon Y. Liao, 2020. "U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1289, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Hyeyoon Jung, 2021. "Real Consequences of Shocks to Intermediaries Supplying Corporate Hedging Instruments," Staff Reports 989, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Real Output and Cross-Currency Basis Swap Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Pēteris Kloks & Patrick McGuire & Angelo Ranaldo & Vladyslav Sushko, 2023. "Bank positions in FX swaps: insights from CLS," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    10. Todd M. Hazelkorn & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kaushik Vasudevan, 2023. "Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 301-345, February.
    11. MASUJIMA Yuki & SATO Yuki, 2024. "Drivers of Post-pandemic Currency Movement: Recurring impacts of sovereign risks and oil prices," Discussion papers 24054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.
    13. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2022. "Tracking Exchange Rate Determinants amid the Pandemic," Discussion papers 22001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global imbalances; Exchange rate; Forward; Hedging; Covered interest rate parity; Currency options; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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