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Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price

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  • TODD M. HAZELKORN
  • TOBIAS J. MOSKOWITZ
  • KAUSHIK VASUDEVAN

Abstract

Deviations from the law of one price between futures and spot prices—the futures‐cash basis—capture information about liquidity demand for equity market exposure in global markets. We show that the basis comoves with dealer and investor futures positions, is contemporaneously positively correlated with futures and spot market returns, and negatively predicts futures and spot returns. These findings are consistent with the futures‐cash basis reflecting liquidity demand that is common to futures and cash equity markets. We find persistent supply‐demand imbalances for equity index exposure reflected in the basis, giving rise to an annual premium of 5% to 6%.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd M. Hazelkorn & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kaushik Vasudevan, 2023. "Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 301-345, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:78:y:2023:i:1:p:301-345
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13198
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    1. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Chase P. Ross & Sharon Y. Ross & Kaushik Vasudevan, 2024. "Quantities and Covered-Interest Parity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Daniel Barth & R. Jay Kahn & Phillip J. Monin & Oleg Sokolinskiy, 2024. "Reaching for Duration and Leverage in the Treasury Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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