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Systemic risk and financial consolidation: are they related?

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The creation of a number of very large and sometimes increasingly complex financial institutions, resulting in part from the on-going consolidation of the financial system, has raised concerns that the degree of systemic risk in the financial system may have increased. We argue that firm interdependencies, as measured by correlations of stock returns, provide an indicator of systemic risk potential. We analyze the dynamics of the stock return correlations of a sample of U.S. large and complex banking organizations (LCBOs) over 1988-1999, and find a significant positive trend in stock return correlations. In addition, we relate firms' return correlations to their consolidation activity. Consolidation at the sample LCBOs appears to have contributed to LCBOs interdependencies. However, consolidation elasticities of correlation exhibit substantial time variation, and likely declined in the latter part of the decade. Thus, factors other than consolidation have also been responsible for the upward trend in return correlations.

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  • Gianni De Nicolo & Myron L. Kwast, 2001. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: are they related?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2001-33
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2004. "Interbank exposures: an empirical examination of systemic risk in the Belgian banking system," Working Paper Research 43, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Mark Mink, 2010. "Do Financial Markets Expect Bank Defaults to be Contagious?," DNB Working Papers 274, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2007. "Estimating systemic risk in the international financial system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 835-869, December.
    5. Fabio Di Vittorio & Delong Li & Hanlei Yun, 2018. "On Bank Consolidation in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2018/092, International Monetary Fund.
    6. J.A. Bikker & A.A.T. Wesseling, 2003. "Intermediation, integration and internationalisation: a survey on banking in Europe," Research Series Supervision (discontinued) 53, Netherlands Central Bank, Directorate Supervision.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Italy—Assessing Competition and Efficiency in the Banking System," IMF Working Papers 2007/026, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Yunyong Thaicharoen & Rungporn Roengpitya & Jiranit Chaowalit & Songklod Rastapana, 2009. "Developing the Efficient and Resilient Financial System for Thailand: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges Ahead," Working Papers 2009-04, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    9. Grégory Nguyen, 2003. "The Belgian Interbank Market: Interbank Linkages and Systemic Risk," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 1(1), pages 105-123, June.
    10. Andrew Kuritzkes & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Risk Measurement, Risk Management and Capital Adequacy in Financial Conglomerates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-02, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    11. Schüler, Martin, 2002. "The threat of systemic risk in banking: evidence for Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-21, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Elena Carletti & Philipp Hartmann, 2003. "Competition and stability: what's special about banking?," Chapters, in: Paul Mizen (ed.), Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Rungporn Roengpitya & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2010. "Measuring Systemic Risk And Financial Linkages In The Thai Banking System," Working Papers 2010-02, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    14. Acharya, Viral & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2003. "Information Contagion and Inter-Bank Correlation in a Theory of Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    Keywords

    Risk; Bank mergers;

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