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Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China

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  • Zheng Liu
  • Mark M. Spiegel
  • Jingyi Zhang

Abstract

China maintains tight controls over its capital account. Its current policy regime also features financial repression, under which banks are required to extend funds to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) at favorable terms, despite their lower productivity than private firms on average. We incorporate these features into a general equilibrium model. Our model illustrates a tradeoff between aggregate productivity and inter-temporal allocative efficiency from capital account liberalization under financial repression. As a result, along a transition path with a declining SOE share, welfare-maximizing policy calls for rapid removal of financial repression, but gradual liberalization of the capital account.

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  • Zheng Liu & Mark M. Spiegel & Jingyi Zhang, 2020. "Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China," Working Paper Series 2018-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2018-10
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2018-10
    Note: The first version of this paper was August 2, 2018.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Dotsey & Wenli Li & Fang Yang, 2019. "Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth," Working Papers 19-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Xinping Zhang & Yimeng Zhang & Yunchan Zhu, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Sustainability of Macroeconomy, and Choice of Monetary Policy Targets: A NK-DSGE Analysis Based on China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Davis, J. Scott & Fujiwara, Ippei & Huang, Kevin X.D. & Wang, Jiao, 2021. "Foreign exchange reserves as a tool for capital account management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 473-488.
    4. Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Zhang, Jingyi, 2023. "Capital flows and income inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Frank Packer & Mark M. Spiegel, 2020. "Competitive Effects of IPOS: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions," Working Paper Series 2020-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Xiaoming Li & Zheng Liu & Yuchao Peng & Zhiwei Xu, 2020. "Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China," Working Paper Series 2020-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Fusheng Xie, 2023. "Productivity Improvement from the Mixed-Ownership Reform: A Financial Frictions Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Xiuxiu Jiang & Xia Wang & Jia Ren & Zhimin Xie, 2021. "The Nexus between Digital Finance and Economic Development: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Ibrahim, Ridwan Lanre & Al-mulali, Usama & Ozturk, Ilhan & Bello, Ajide Kazeem & Raimi, Lukman, 2022. "On the criticality of renewable energy to sustainable development: Do green financial development, technological innovation, and economic complexity matter for China?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 262-277.
    10. Kaiji Chen & Tao Zha, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies," NBER Working Papers 25222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Chao Liu & Jiaye Lu & Ding Li & Mengyao Jia & Kunru Han, 2023. "Are State-Owned Enterprises Really Ineffective? An Empirical Study Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.
    12. Michael Dotsey, 2019. "Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth," 2019 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Wang, Xun & Yu, Jingwen, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic and corporate liquidity: The role of SOEs’ trade credit response," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Le, Anh H., 2023. "Climate change and carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management," IMFS Working Paper Series 191, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    16. Xiaoming Li & Zheng Liu & Yuchao Peng & Zhiwei Xu, 2020. "Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China," Working Paper Series 2020-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Michel Aglietta & Camille Macaire, 2019. "Setting the Stage for RMB Internationalisation - Liberalizing the Capital Account and Strengthening the Domestic Bond Market," CEPII Policy Brief 2019-28, CEPII research center.
    18. Yang, Ronghai & Sun, Xiaowen & Wang, Honglei & Wang, Xiao, 2024. "A study of the time-varying impact of capital account liberalization on monetary policy rules in the open economy: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Liu, Renliang & Sheng, Liugang & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Faking trade for capital control evasion: Evidence from dual exchange rate arbitrage in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital controls; financial repression; China; Sequencing reforms; misallocations; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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