IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/2018-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Kaiji Chen
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

The Chinese economy has undergone three major phases: the 1978?97 period marked as the SOE-led economy, the 1998?2015 phase as the investment-driven economy, and the new normal economy since 2016. All three economies have been shaped by the government financial policies, defined as a set of credit policy, monetary policy, and regulatory policy. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of these financial policies throughout the three phases and provide the stylized facts to substantiate our analysis. The stylized facts differ qualitatively across different phases or economies. We argue that the impacts of China's financial policies work through transmission channels different from those in developed economies and that a regime switch from one economy to another was driven mainly by regime changes in financial policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiji Chen & Tao Zha, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2018-12
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2018-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/2018/12-macroeconomic-effects-of-chinas-financial-policies-2018-11-16.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.29338/wp2018-12?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    2. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3891-3936, December.
    3. Kaiji Chen & Yi Wen, 2017. "The Great Housing Boom of China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 73-114, April.
    4. Kaiji Chen & Patrick C. Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    6. Long, Zhiming & Herrera, Rémy, 2016. "Building original series of physical capital stocks for China's economy methodological problems, proposals for solutions and a new database," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 33-53.
    7. Justin Yifu Lin, 2013. "Demystifying the Chinese Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(3), pages 259-268, September.
    8. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    9. Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Zhang, Jingyi, 2021. "Optimal capital account liberalization in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1041-1061.
    10. Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2017. "Growing and Slowing Down Like China," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(5), pages 943-988.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Che, Ming & Zhu, Zixiang & Li, Yujia, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty: Different roles in China's financial cycle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Ran, Gao & Zixiang, Zhu & Jianhao, Lin, 2022. "Consumption–investment comovement and the dynamic impact of monetary policy uncertainty in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Zhang, Wen, 2020. "Political incentives and local government spending multiplier: Evidence for Chinese provinces (1978–2016)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 59-71.
    4. Ya. M. Mirkin, 2023. "The Eastern Path of Global Finance," Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law, Center for Crisis Society Studies, vol. 15(2).
    5. Khan, Jamal & Li, Yuan & Mahsud, Qaiser Jamal, 2024. "Linkages and Structural Changes in the Chinese Financial Sector, 1996–2018: A Network and Input–Output Approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 33-44.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China’s financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Zhang, Min & Zhang, Yahong, 2022. "Monetary stimulus policy in China: The bank credit channel," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Yiming & Tu, Guoqian & Yu, Frank, 2019. "Entrusted loans: A close look at China's shadow banking system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 18-41.
    6. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China's financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Xiaoming Li & Zheng Liu & Yuchao Peng & Zhiwei Xu, 2020. "Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China," Working Paper Series 2020-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Yiming & Tu, Guoqian & Yu, Frank, 2018. "Entrusted Loans: A Close Look at China’s Shadow Banking System," CEPR Discussion Papers 12864, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Jia Pengfei & Lim King Yoong, 2021. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 151-183, January.
    10. Shuonan Zhang, 2024. "State‐owned enterprises and entrusted lending: Economic growth and business cycles in China," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 197-222, January.
    11. Kaiji Chen & Haoyu Gao & Patrick Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2023. "Monetary Stimulus amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan‐Level Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 1147-1204, April.
    12. Xiaoming Li & Zheng Liu & Yuchao Peng & Zhiwei Xu, 2020. "Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China," Working Paper Series 2020-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Min, Feng & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2022. "Measuring the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on domestic investment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 395-412.
    14. Shuonan Zhang, 2020. "State-owned enterprises and entrusted lending: A DSGE analysis for growth and business cycles in China," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2020-01, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    15. Cai, Yue, 2021. "Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Tianye Lin & Yangyang Ji & Sen Zhang, 2020. "Real Estate, Interest Rates, and Crowding-out Effects," CEMA Working Papers 613, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    17. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    18. Chen, Pu & Wang, Chunyang & Liu, Yangyan, 2015. "Real estate prices and firm borrowings: Micro evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 296-308.
    19. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2018. "A Review of China’s Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13269, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Bo Zhao, 2015. "Rational housing bubble," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(1), pages 141-201, September.
    21. Ren, Xiaoyi & Shao, Huan, 2022. "Non-state shareholder governance and shadow banking business: Evidence from Chinese state-owned manufacturing enterprises," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    22. Gu, Yanwei & Guo, Jing & Liang, Xiao & Zhao, Yajun, 2022. "Does the debt-growth link differ across private and public debt? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    marketized tools; regime change; growth; investment; capital intensity; local governments; regulations; shadow banking; debts; real estate; preferential credits; industrialization; SOEs; POEs; heavy and light sectors; monetary stimulus; trends and cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2018-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rob Sarwark (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.