IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddwp/1901.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials

Author

Listed:
  • Michael D. Plante
  • Grant Strickler

Abstract

We show that the oil market has become closer to "one great pool," in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. We document, in particular, that many of these quality-related differentials experienced a major structural break in or around 2008, after which there was a marked reduction in their means and, in many cases, volatilities. Several factors explain these shifts, including a growing ability of the global refinery sector to process lower-quality crude oil and the U.S. shale boom, which has unexpectedly boosted the supply of high-quality crude oil. Differentials between crude oils of similar quality in general did not experience breaks in or around 2008, although we do find evidence of breaks at other times. We also show that these structural breaks can affect tests of stationarity for many price differentials.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Plante & Grant Strickler, 2019. "Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials," Working Papers 1901, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1901
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1901
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/research/papers/2019/wp1901.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24149/wp1901?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Suzi Kerr & Richard G. Newell, 2003. "Policy‐Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 317-343, September.
    2. Douglas G. Sauer, 1994. "Measuring Economic Markets for Imported Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 107-124.
    3. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    4. Bahattin Buyuksahin, Thomas K. Lee, James T. Moser, and Michel A. Robe, 2013. "Physical Markets, Paper Markets and the WTI-Brent Spread," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    6. Severin Borenstein & Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Incidence of an Oil Glut: Who Benefits from Cheap Crude Oil in the Midwest?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(1), pages 15-34, January.
    7. Atanu Ghoshray and Tatiana Trifonova, 2014. "Dynamic Adjustment of Crude Oil Price Spreads," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    8. Scheitrum, Daniel P. & Carter, Colin A. & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2018. "WTI and Brent futures pricing structure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 462-469.
    9. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    10. Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2008. "Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Crude Oil Benchmarks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 79-96.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    12. Fattouh, Bassam, 2010. "The dynamics of crude oil price differentials," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 334-342, March.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    14. M. A. Adelman, 1984. "International Oil Agreements," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-10.
    15. Giulietti, Monica & Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2015. "A pair-wise analysis of the law of one price: Evidence from the crude oil market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 39-41.
    16. Robert J. Weiner, 1991. "Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool"?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 95-108.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yue-Jun Zhang & Han Zhang, 2023. "Volatility Forecasting of Crude Oil Market: Which Structural Change Based GARCH Models have Better Performance?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(1), pages 175-194, January.
    2. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    3. Ziliang Yu & Jian Yang & Robert I. Webb, 2023. "Price discovery in China's crude oil futures markets: An emerging Asian benchmark?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 297-324, March.
    4. Michail Filippidis & George Filis & Georgios Magkonis & Panagiotis Tzouvanas, 2023. "Evaluating robust determinants of the WTI/Brent oil price differential: A dynamic model averaging analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 807-825, June.
    5. Cui, Jinxin & Alshater, Muneer M. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk spillovers and optimal portfolio strategies in global oil markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    6. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Zhang, Han, 2023. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures market: Which structural change-based HAR models have better performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Peter Öhlinger & Michael Irlacher & Jochen Güntner, 2024. "Not all oil types are alike in trade substitution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Marc Gronwald & Sania Wadud & Kingsley Dogah, 2024. "Informational Efficiency of World Oil Markets: One Great Pool, but with Varying Depth," CESifo Working Paper Series 11017, CESifo.
    9. Gronwald, Marc & Jin, Xin, 2024. "Measuring world oil market integration with a Thick Pen," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    10. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: New evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Integration and Risk Transmission in the Market for Crude Oil: A Time-Varying Parameter Frequency Connectedness Approach," Working Papers 202147, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.
    4. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: New evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Jerome Geyer‐Klingeberg & Andreas W. Rathgeber, 2021. "Determinants of the WTI‐Brent price spread revisited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 736-757, May.
    6. Ayman Omar, 2015. "West Texas Intermediate and Brent Spread during Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Supply Disruptions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 693-703.
    7. Luong, Phat V., 2023. "Crude oil pipeline constraints: A tale of two shales," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Libo Xu, 2024. "On the WTI-WCS Oil Price Differential," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 67-77, September.
    9. Niyati Bhanja & Samia Nasreen & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "Connectedness in International Crude Oil Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 227-262, January.
    10. Atanu Ghoshray and Tatiana Trifonova, 2014. "Dynamic Adjustment of Crude Oil Price Spreads," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    11. Giulietti, Monica & Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2014. "Crude oil price differentials, product heterogeneity and institutional arrangements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 28-32.
    12. Kentaka Aruga, 2015. "Testing the International Crude Oil Market Integration with Structural Breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 641-649.
    13. Ruble, Isabella & Powell, John, 2021. "The Brent-WTI spread revisited: A novel approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    14. Galay, Gregory, 2019. "Are crude oil markets cointegrated? Testing the co-movement of weekly crude oil spot prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    15. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro & Quaresima, Greta & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2021. "Decoupling and recoupling in the crude oil price benchmarks: An investigation of similarity patterns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    16. Kuck, Konstantin & Schweikert, Karsten, 2017. "A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 16-31.
    17. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2018. "Do Global Crude Oil Markets Behave as One Great Pool? A Cyclical Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(2), pages 219-241, November.
    18. González-Álvarez, María A. & Montañés, Antonio, 2023. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth: Determining the stability of the 3E relationship," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Wen, Fenghua & Chen, Jinyu, 2023. "Evolution of the information transmission between Chinese and international oil markets: A quantile-based framework," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    20. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    crude oil price differentials; oil; structural breaks; stationarity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1901. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amy Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.