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Bank crises and sovereign defaults in emerging markets: exploring the links

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  • Irina Balteanu
  • Aitor Erce

Abstract

This paper provides a set of stylized facts on the mechanisms through which banking and sovereign distress feed into each other, using a large sample of emerging economies over three decades. We first define ?twin crises? as events where banking crises and sovereign defaults combine, and further distinguish between those banking crises that end up in sovereign debt crises, and vice-versa. We then assess what differentiates ?single? episodes from ?twin? ones. Using an event analysis methodology, we study the behavior around crises of variables describing the balance sheet interconnection between the banking and public sectors, the characteristics of the banking sector, the state of public finances, and the macroeconomic context. We find that there are systematic differences between ?single? and ?twin? crises across all these dimensions. Additionally, we find that ?twin? crises are heterogeneous events: taking into account the proper time sequence of crises that compose ?twin? episodes is important for understanding their drivers, transmission channels and economic consequences. Our results shed light on mechanisms surrounding feedback loops of sovereign and banking stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2014. "Bank crises and sovereign defaults in emerging markets: exploring the links," Globalization Institute Working Papers 184, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:184
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp184
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing Li & Xiangyu Ge & Wei Fan & Hao Zheng, 2021. "Research on Spatial Correlation Characteristics and Their Spatial Spillover Effect of Local Government Debt Risks in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-32, March.
    2. Sosa-Padilla, César, 2018. "Sovereign defaults and banking crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 88-105.
    3. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2018. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 617-664, December.
    4. Aitor Erce, 2015. "Bank and sovereign risk feedback loops," Globalization Institute Working Papers 227, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Yu, Sherry, 2017. "Sovereign and bank Interdependencies—Evidence from the CDS market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 68-84.
    6. Patricia Gómez-González, 2015. "Financial innovation in sovereign borrowing and public provision of liquidity," Working Papers 1511, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank crises; sovereign debts;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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