IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedbcq/96216.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Falk Bräuning
  • Viacheslav Sheremirov

Abstract

The failures of several U.S. regional banks have stimulated discussions about the macroeconomic effects of a likely credit contraction triggered by the recent banking turmoil. Drawing on historical evidence from advanced economies, this study documents a sizable and persistent decline in output and rise in unemployment following non-systemic financial distress. The effects of a systemic banking crisis are two to four times as large. High corporate leverage exacerbates banking turmoil, whereas high bank capitalization and a relatively large share of market financing in corporate debt mitigate it. These channels approximately offset one another so that the estimates tailored to the current U.S. economy are in line with the average effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity," Current Policy Perspectives 96216, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcq:96216
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2023/the-historical-effects-of-banking-distress-on-economic-activity
    File Function: Summary
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/Workingpapers/PDF/2023/cpp20230525.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    6. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    7. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2022. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4561-4586.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    9. Òscar Jordà & Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2021. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 260-286.
    10. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    11. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathon Adams‐Kane & Julián A. Caballero & Jamus Jerome Lim, 2017. "Foreign Bank Behavior during Financial Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 351-392, March.
    2. Morais, Bernardo & Peydró, José-Luis & Roldán Peña, Jessica & Ruiz Ortega, Claudia, 2019. "The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach-for-Yield, and Real Effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(1), pages 55-90.
    3. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021. "Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    6. Ahrend, Rudiger & Goujard, Antoine, 2015. "Global banking, global crises? The role of the bank balance-sheet channel for the transmission of financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 253-279.
    7. Beck, T.H.L., 2011. "The Role of Finance in Economic Development : Benefits, Risks, and Politics," Discussion Paper 2011-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Atkeson, Andrew G. & Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2017. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926–2012," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 613-635.
    9. Adams-Kane, Jonathon & Caballero, Julian A. & Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2013. "Foreign bank behavior during financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6590, The World Bank.
    10. Willi Semmler, 2011. "Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-20680-1, July.
    11. Dongchul Cho, 2012. "Responses of the Korean Economy to the Global Economic Crisis: Another Currency Crisis?," Chapters, in: Maurice Obstfeld & Dongchul Cho & Andrew Mason (ed.), Global Economic Crisis, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Alfred Duncan & Charles Nolan, 2017. "Financial Frictions in Macroeconomic Models," Studies in Economics 1719, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    13. Ozlem Akin & José Montalvo & Jaume García Villar & José-Luis Peydró & Josep Raya, 2014. "The real estate and credit bubble: evidence from Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 223-243, August.
    14. Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers 1532, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    15. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2015. "Financial Crises, Development, and Growth: A Long-term Perspective," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(suppl_1), pages 53-76.
    18. Lim , Jamus Jerome & Minne, Geoffrey, 2014. "Learning from financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6838, The World Bank.
    19. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2024. "Global Financial Cycle, Household Credit, and Macroprudential Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(11), pages 8096-8115, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking distress; real economy; financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcq:96216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Spozio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.