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Does the debt-growth link differ across private and public debt? Evidence from China

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  • Gu, Yanwei
  • Guo, Jing
  • Liang, Xiao
  • Zhao, Yajun

Abstract

Deleveraging has been one of China's announced policy goals since 2015 due to the high debt-to-GDP ratio. Although China's private debt and public debt differ widely in level and usage, the literature overlooks the difference in their impacts on economic growth in China. We fill this research gap by separately investigating the private and public debt-growth link with the Max Share method. Our results show that private debt has inverted U-shaped effects on both investment and TFP, thus growth, which provides new evidence that excessive inflows of capital into real estate and financial assets could crowd out manufacturing investment and hinder innovation. In contrast, public debt still has a positive and linear effect on growth due to the crowding-in effect of public investment on private investment. Finally, this paper suggests focusing more on reducing private debt for China's deleveraging.

Suggested Citation

  • Gu, Yanwei & Guo, Jing & Liang, Xiao & Zhao, Yajun, 2022. "Does the debt-growth link differ across private and public debt? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:114:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322001766
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105930
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Private debt; Public debt; Economic growth; Debt threshold; Debt-growth channel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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