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Optimal investment timing in the dry bulk shipping sector

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  • Gkochari, Christiana C.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to illustrate, for the first time, the performance of optimal perfectly competitive investment strategies based on option games in dry bulk shipping. Using a dataset of the Capesize market development over the period January 2000–May 2013 the author derives the stochastic dynamic equilibrium in that market. Moreover, the author examines the effect of newbuildings completion delays and finds that moving from completion delays to no time-to-build reduces the trigger value. The current analysis brings about additional insights and helps explain the existence of boom-and-bust cycles in shipping.

Suggested Citation

  • Gkochari, Christiana C., 2015. "Optimal investment timing in the dry bulk shipping sector," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 102-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:79:y:2015:i:c:p:102-109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2015.02.018
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    2. Peng, Zixuan & Shan, Wenxuan & Guan, Feng & Yu, Bin, 2016. "Stable vessel-cargo matching in dry bulk shipping market with price game mechanism," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-94.
    3. Rau, Philipp & Spinler, Stefan, 2017. "Alliance formation in a cooperative container shipping game: Performance of a real options investment approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 155-175.
    4. Rau, Philipp & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Investment into container shipping capacity: A real options approach in oligopolistic competition," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 130-147.
    5. Shi, Shasha & An, Qingxian & Chen, Ke, 2020. "Optimal choice of capacity, toll, and subsidy for build-operate-transfer roads with a paid minimum traffic guarantee," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 228-254.
    6. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2017. "Herd behavior in the drybulk market: an empirical analysis of the decision to invest in new and retire existing fleet capacity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 36-51.
    7. Konstantinos Drakos & Dimitris Tsouknidis, 2024. "Investment under uncertainty and irreversibility: Evidence from the shipping markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2139-2154, April.
    8. Li, Shuai & Cai, Hubo, 2017. "Government incentive impacts on private investment behaviors under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 115-129.
    9. Bai, Xiwen & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee & Jakher, Astha, 2021. "Shipping sentiment and the dry bulk shipping freight market: New evidence from newspaper coverage," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Sinem Celik Girgin & Thanasis Karlis & Hong-Oanh Nguyen, 2018. "A Critical Review of the Literature on Firm-Level Theories on Ship Investment," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Thanopoulou, Helen & Yip, Tsz Leung, 2017. "Investors’ behavior and dynamics of ship prices: A heterogeneous agent model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 98-114.

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