Could this ever happen in Spain? Economic and policy aspects of a SARS-like episode

This paper has attempted in a rather crude way to set an estimate of the economic consequences of a SARS-like epidemic outbreak in Spain having the country as a secondary hub of the disease. Per se, Spain could hardly be the origin of such an outbreak given her geographical situation but the country is increasingly taking part of global exchanges of persons and goods and in particular with countries where a like epidemics could originate. Several lessons can be derived from SARS the most important one being that prompt and effective action even at the expense of costly and unpopular isolation measures is the best way to limit the overall incidence irrespective of treatments being readily available or not. Based on available estimates on the economic consequences of SARS so far and taking into account the economic size and share of the Spanish tourist sector I estimate an upper range of between 1 and 2,4 billion euros in the “prompt and effective action” scenario according to the seasonal moment of occurrence of the outbreak if this were to happen in Spain.