IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp078.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Implications for the Central and Eastern European Countries

Author

Abstract

This paper estimates the medium-term determinants of the bilateral exchange rate variability and exchange rate pressures for 20 developed countries in the 1990s. The results suggest that optimum currency area criteria explain the dynamics of bilateral exchange rate variability and pressures, to a large extent. Next, we predict exchange rate volatility and pressures for the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). We find that CEECs encounter exchange rate pressures approximately at the level of Euro area countries before their euro adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horváth, 2005. "Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Implications for the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 78, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/4770
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher J. Neely, 2000. "Are changes in foreign exchange reserves well correlated with official intervention?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Sep), pages 17-32.
    2. Roland Vaubel, 1976. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community: The empirical evidence and its implications for European currency unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 112(3), pages 429-470, September.
    3. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    4. Angel Serrat, 2000. "Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Multilateral Target Zone," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 193-211.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    6. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank.
    7. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
    9. Louis Kuijs & Alain Borghijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe: A Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 2004/002, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ian Babetskii, 2005. "Trade integration and synchronization of shocks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Marcus Pramor & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Common Volatility Trends in the Central and Eastern European Currencies and the Euro," IMF Working Papers 2006/206, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Peter Dreuw, 2023. "Structural time series models and synthetic controls—assessing the impact of the euro adoption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 681-725, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roman Horvath, 2005. "Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Lessons for the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2005/08, Czech National Bank.
    2. Roman Horvath, 2005. "Exchange rate variability, pressures and optimum currency area criteria: some empirical evidence from the 1990s," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 919-922.
    3. Hamza Bennani, 2012. "National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements," Working Papers hal-00992646, HAL.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:25:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tapsoba Jules-Armand, 2007. "Bilateral Trade and Business Cycles Synchronization: African Monetary Integration Perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(25), pages 1-15.
    6. Asadul Islam & Dietrich K. Fausten, 2008. "Skilled Immigration and Wages in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(s1), pages 66-82, September.
    7. Hanley, Nick & Tinch, Dugald & Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Davies, Althea & Barbier, Edward B. & Watson, Fiona, 2009. "What drives long-run biodiversity change? New insights from combining economics, palaeoecology and environmental history," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-20, January.
    8. Gopalakrishnan, Sathya & Smith, Martin D. & Slott, Jordan M. & Murray, A. Brad, 2011. "The value of disappearing beaches: A hedonic pricing model with endogenous beach width," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 297-310, May.
    9. Jere R. Behrman & John Hoddinott & John A. Maluccio, & Erica Soler-Hampejsek & Emily L. Behrman & Reynaldo Martorell & Manuel Ramirez-Zea & Aryeh D. Stein, 2006. "What Determines Adult Cognitive Skills? Impacts of Pre-Schooling, Schooling and Post-Schooling Experiences in Guatemala," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-027, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Lundin, Magnus & Gottfries, Nils & Lindström, Tomas, 2004. "Price and Investment Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis of Plant Level Data," Working Paper Series 2004:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    11. Idil Uz Akdogan, 2020. "Understanding the dynamics of foreign reserve management: The central bank intervention policy and the exchange rate fundamentals," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 41-55.
    12. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 59(02), pages 171-190, June.
    13. Iwona Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz, 2016. "Foreign trade and the theory of optimum currency areas. Implications for Poland," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 13, pages 5-26, March.
    14. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.
    15. Mueller, Elisabeth, 2008. "How does owners' exposure to idiosyncratic risk influence the capital structure of private companies?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-198, March.
    16. Andrea Bonilla‐Bolaños, 2021. "A step further in the theory of regional integration: A look at the South American integration strategy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 845-873, July.
    17. Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Davor Kunovac, 2020. "Twentieth Anniversary of the Euro: Why are Some Countries Still Not Willing to Join? Economists’ View," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 242-262, June.
    18. Matthew Higgins & Andrew Young & Daniel Levy, 2009. "Federal, state, and local governments: evaluating their separate roles in US growth," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 493-507, June.
    19. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.
    20. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008. "Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
    21. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rates; Optimum Currency Area; Euro Adoption; GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp078. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.