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Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Implications for the Central and Eastern European Countries

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Abstract

This paper estimates the medium-term determinants of the bilateral exchange rate variability and exchange rate pressures for 20 developed countries in the 1990s. The results suggest that optimum currency area criteria explain the dynamics of bilateral exchange rate variability and pressures, to a large extent. Next, we predict exchange rate volatility and pressures for the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). We find that CEECs encounter exchange rate pressures approximately at the level of Euro area countries before their euro adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horváth, 2005. "Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Implications for the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 78, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp078
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Marcus Pramor & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Common Volatility Trends in the Central and Eastern European Currencies and the Euro," IMF Working Papers 2006/206, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Peter Dreuw, 2023. "Structural time series models and synthetic controls—assessing the impact of the euro adoption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 681-725, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rates; Optimum Currency Area; Euro Adoption; GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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