IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ost/wpaper/292.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian, Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic

Author

Listed:
  • Katarína Danišková

    (Comenius University Bratislava)

  • Jarko Fidrmuc

    (Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg (Institut for East European Studies))

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve has become an important part of modern monetary policy models. It describes the relationship between inflation and real marginal cost, which is derived from micro-founded models with rational expectations, sticky prices, and forward and backward looking behaviour. This answers the previous critique of the Phillips Curve. We estimate several specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the Czech Republic between 1996 and 2009. We show that the GMM suffers under the problem of weak instruments leading to biased estimates. In turn, the FIML is robust and yields significant estimates of structural parameters implying a strong forward looking behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian, Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 292, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    • Handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:292
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.oei-dokumente.de/publikationen/wp/wp-292.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2010. "Price setting and market structure: an empirical analysis of micro data in Slovakia," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 209-233.
    2. Jarko Fidrmuc & Matúš Senaj, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Regimes in Slovakia and the New EU Member States (in Slovak)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(1-2), pages 40-57, January.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    5. Franta, Michal & Saxa, Branislav & Šmídková, Kateřina, 2007. "Inflation persistence: euro area and new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 810, European Central Bank.
    6. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
    7. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2003. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 42-78, May.
    8. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Moore, George R. & Schuh, Scott D., 1995. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-157, February.
    9. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & G. S. Tavlas, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 467-481, October.
    10. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2006. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Without Assuming Identification," Working Papers 2006-13, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    11. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008. "Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
    12. Magdalena Borys & Roman Horváth & Michal Franta, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 419-443, November.
    13. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    14. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1694, CESifo.
    15. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    16. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    17. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2009. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 375-398, June.
    18. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
    19. Argia M. Sbordone, 2002. "An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    20. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    21. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-448, June.
    22. Borek Vasicek, 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Processes in Open Emerging Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 36-58, January.
    23. I-Lok Chang & P.A.V.B. Swamy & Charles Hallahan & George S. Tavlas, 2000. "A Computational Approach to Finding Causal Economic Laws," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 105-136, October.
    24. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    26. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    27. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    28. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    29. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlaváèek & Roman Horváth, 2008. "Do Central Bank Forecast Errors Contribute to the Missing of Inflation Targets? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 434-453, December.
    30. Maritta Paloviita, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 847-860, November.
    31. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics And Subjective Expectations In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 13-25, January.
    33. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    34. MacDonald, Ronald & Wójcik, Cezary, 2008. "Catching-up and inflation differentials in a heterogeneous monetary union: Some implications for the euro area and new EU Member States," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 4-16, March.
    35. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    36. Sbordone, Argia M., 2005. "Do expected future marginal costs drive inflation dynamics?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1183-1197, September.
    37. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    38. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-984, November.
    39. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Herve, 2005. "Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-550, May.
    40. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher A. Hartwell, 2014. "Do (successful) stock exchanges support or hinder institutions in transition economies?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    3. Vít Pošta, 2015. "Semi-structural estimates of time-varying NAIRU based on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: evidence from Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1217-1243, December.
    4. Combes, Jean-Louis & Lesuisse, Pierre, 2022. "Inflation and unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 124-142.
    5. Daniela Milučká, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic: Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 53-70.
    6. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 314, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    2. Jarko Fidrmuc & Katarína Danišková, 2020. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Developed and Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 10-31, January.
    3. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 314, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    4. Jan Marc Berk & Job Swank, 2007. "Regional real exchange rates and Phillips curves in monetary unions - Evidence from the US and EMU," DNB Working Papers 147, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    6. Henzel, Steffen & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve and the role of expectations: Evidence from the CESifo World Economic Survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 811-832, September.
    7. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    8. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2009. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 375-398, June.
    9. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 525-551.
    10. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    11. Fabrice Orlandi & Werner Roeger & Anna Thum-Thysen, 2018. "The Return of the European Wage Phillips Curve," European Economy - Discussion Papers 085, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Luca Fanelli, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Through Vector Autoregressive Models: Results from the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 53-66, February.
    13. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Sgro, Pasquale M., 2011. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2022-2033, July.
    14. Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-164, August.
    15. repec:zbw:bofism:2008_040 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    17. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 40/2008.
    18. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
    19. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Fall), pages 361-395.
    20. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 144-179, December.
    21. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; New Keynesian Phillips Curve; marginal costs; output gap; real unit labour costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:292. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kseniia Gatskova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.