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The Diminishing Impact of Exchange Rates on China’s Exports

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  • Willem THORBECKE
  • CHEN Chen
  • Nimesh SALIKE

Abstract

China’s exports increased from $62 billion in 1990 to $3.6 trillion in 2022. This surge has generated protectionism abroad. Researchers found that renminbi appreciations in earlier years decreased China’s exports. This paper presents time series and panel data evidence indicating that exchange rates after the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis no longer affect aggregate exports. It also finds that almost all individual export categories were sensitive to exchange rates before the GFC but that less than half are afterwards. These results imply that, if policymakers want to influence China’s trade, they need to use instruments other than exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem THORBECKE & CHEN Chen & Nimesh SALIKE, 2025. "The Diminishing Impact of Exchange Rates on China’s Exports," Discussion papers 25010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:25010
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