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China's Exports in a Protectionist World

Author

Listed:
  • Willem THORBECKE
  • Nimesh SALIKE
  • CHEN Chen

Abstract

Tariffs, currency wars, and protectionism pose risks for Chinese firms. In theory, tariffs and exchange rates exert equivalent effects on export volumes. In practice, tariffs deter trade more than appreciations. This paper estimates exchange rate elasticities for China's four-digit export categories, and uses these to infer lower bounds for the impact of tariffs on exports. The results indicate the China's flagship industries such as electronics and machinery are exposed to exchange rate appreciations and tariffs. The paper then considers how China can promote freer trade to mitigate risks and reduce uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem THORBECKE & Nimesh SALIKE & CHEN Chen, 2020. "China's Exports in a Protectionist World," Discussion papers 20011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:20011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen Chen & Nimesh Salike & Willem Thorbecke, 2023. "Exchange rate effects on China's exports: Product sophistication and exchange rate elasticity," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 371-400, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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