IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/19039.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Females, the Elderly, and Also Males: Demographic Aging and Macroeconomy in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • KITAO Sagiri
  • MIKOSHIBA Minamo
  • TAKEUCHI Hikaru

Abstract

The speed and magnitude of the ongoing demographic aging in Japan are unprecedented. A rapid decline in the labor force and a rising fiscal burden to finance social security expenditures could hamper growth over a prolonged period. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model populated by overlapping generations of males and females who differ in employment type and labor productivity in addition to life expectancy. We study how changes in the labor market over the coming decades will affect the transition path of the economy and fiscal situation of Japan. We find that a rise in the labor supply of females and the elderly of both genders in extensive margin and in productivity can significantly mitigate the effects of demographic aging on the macroeconomy and reduce fiscal pressures, despite a decline in wages during the transition. We also quantify effects of alternative demographic scenarios and fiscal policies. The study suggests that a combination of policies that remove obstacles hindering the labor supply and that create a more efficient allocation of male and female workers of all age groups will be critical to keeping government deficits under control and raising incomes across the nation.

Suggested Citation

  • KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo & TAKEUCHI Hikaru, 2019. "Females, the Elderly, and Also Males: Demographic Aging and Macroeconomy in Japan," Discussion papers 19039, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:19039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/19e039.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Female Labor Supply, Human Capital, and Welfare Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1705-1753, September.
    2. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa-Dias & David Goll & Costas Meghir, 2021. "Wages, Experience, and Training of Women over the Life Cycle," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S1), pages 275-315.
    3. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2008. "Estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 566-585, December.
    4. Orazio Attanasio & Hamish Low & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2008. "Explaining Changes in Female Labor Supply in a Life-Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1517-1552, September.
    5. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
    7. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2007. "Does Social Security Privatization Produce Efficiency Gains?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1677-1719.
    8. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1987. "Evaluating Fiscal Policy with a Dynamic Simulation Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 49-55, May.
    9. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2016. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 201-224, July.
    10. Doi, Takero & Hoshi, Takeo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 414-433.
    11. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2014. "Defying gravity: can Japanese sovereign debt continue to increase without a crisis? [Fiscal discipline and the cost of public debt service: some estimates for OECD countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 5-44.
    12. Gunji, Hiroshi & Miyazaki, Kenji, 2011. "Estimates of average marginal tax rates on factor incomes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 81-106, June.
    13. KITAO Sagiri & YAMADA Tomoaki, 2019. "Dimensions of Inequality in Japan: Distributions of Earnings, Income and Wealth between 1984 and 2014," Discussion papers 19034, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Sagiri Kitao, 2014. "Sustainable Social Security: Four Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 756-779, October.
    15. İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri & Yamada, Tomoaki, 2019. "Fiscal sustainability in Japan: What to tackle?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    16. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    17. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2016. "Achieving Fiscal Balance In Japan," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 117-154, February.
    18. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    19. Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Welfare Analysis of Pension Reforms in an Ageing Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 64(4), pages 452-483, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Females, the elderly, and also males: Demographic aging and macroeconomy in Japan
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2019-07-07 00:17:31

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eiji Yamamura, 2021. "View about consumption tax and grandchildren," Papers 2102.04658, arXiv.org.
    2. Zvedelikova, Mirka, 2024. "Preference for young workers in mid-career recruiting using online ads for sales jobs: Evidence from Japan," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    3. Okamoto, Akira, 2022. "Intergenerational earnings mobility and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 76-104.
    4. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Okumura, Koki, 2021. "The aging society, savings rates, and regional flow of funds in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Okamoto, Akira, 2021. "Immigration policy and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. FUKAI Taiyo & ICHIMURA Hidehiko & KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo, 2021. "Medical Expenditures over the Life Cycle: Persistent Risks and Insurance," Discussion papers 21073, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. KIKUCHI Shinnosuke & KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo, 2020. "Heterogeneous Vulnerability to the COVID-19 Crisis and Implications for Inequality in Japan," Discussion papers 20039, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. KIKUCHI Shinnosuke & FUJIWARA Ippei & SHIROTA Toyoichiro, 2023. "Automation and the Disappearance of Routine Work in Japan," Discussion papers 23082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Okumura, Koki, 2020. "Regional convergence under declining population: The case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    10. Kikuchi, Shinnosuke & Kitao, Sagiri & Mikoshiba, Minamo, 2021. "Who suffers from the COVID-19 shocks? Labor market heterogeneity and welfare consequences in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Inoue, Toshikatsu, 2022. "The effect of aging on the age–wage profile in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo, 2022. "Why Women Work the Way They Do in Japan: Roles of Fiscal Policies," Discussion papers 22016, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Andrea BONFATTI & Selahattin Ä°MROHOROÄžLU & KITAO Sagiri, 2019. "Aging, Factor Prices and Capital Flows," Discussion papers 19110, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Mirka Zvedelikova, 2022. "Preference for Young Workers in Mid-career Recruiting Using Online Ads for Sales Jobs: Evidence from Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 1193rr, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Oct 2023.
    15. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Daisuke Ozaki, 2022. "The Impact of the Social Security Reforms on Welfare: Who benefits and Who loses across Generations, Gender, and Employment Type?," Papers 2205.08042, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    16. Bonfatti, Andrea & İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri, 2022. "Japan and the allocation puzzle in an aging world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Shinnosuke Kikuchi & Sagiri Kitao & Minamo Mikoshiba, 2020. "Who Suffers from the COVID-19 Shocks? Labor Market Heterogeneity and Welfare Consequences in Japan (Forthcoming in the Journal of the Japanese and the International Economies)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-490, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    18. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2022. "Population aging and labor mobility in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Xiao Shen & Jingbo Liang & Jiangning Cao & Zhengwen Wang, 2022. "How Population Aging Affects Industrial Structure Upgrading: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Mirka Zvedelikova, 2022. "Preference for Young Workers in Mid-career Recruiting Using Online Ads for Sales Jobs: Evidence from Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 1193r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Jun 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sagiri Kitao, 2017. "When do we Start? Pension reform in ageing Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(1), pages 26-47, March.
    2. Sagiri Kitao, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty and Cost of Delaying Reform: The Case of Aging Japan," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 81-100, January.
    3. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    4. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2022. "Population aging and labor mobility in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Minchung Hsu & Tomoaki Yamada, 2019. "Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 547-577, April.
    6. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2016. "Achieving Fiscal Balance In Japan," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 117-154, February.
    7. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "Can Guest Workers Solve Japan'S Fiscal Problems?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1287-1307, July.
    8. Nakajima, Tomoyuki & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2017. "The optimum quantity of debt for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-26.
    9. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2017. "Replacing Income Taxation with Consumption Taxation in Japan," CIGS Working Paper Series 17-008E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    11. KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo, 2022. "Why Women Work the Way They Do in Japan: Roles of Fiscal Policies," Discussion papers 22016, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri & Yamada, Tomoaki, 2019. "Fiscal sustainability in Japan: What to tackle?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    13. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2018. "The future prospect of the long-term care insurance in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-17.
    14. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2023. "Demographic Change, Government Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in Japan: The Impact of Bond Purchase by the Bank of Japan," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 88-105, October.
    15. Heer, Burkhard & Trede, Mark, 2023. "Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Tomoaki Kotera, 2020. "Sustainability of Social Security in the Aging Economy from the Perspective of Improving Health," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    17. Hansen, Gary & İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin, 2018. "Replacing income taxation with consumption taxation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 15-28.
    18. Cormac O'Dea, 2018. "Insurance, Efficiency and the Design of Public Pensions," 2018 Meeting Papers 1037, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Choi, Yoonseok & Hirata, Hideaki & Kim, Sunghyun Henry, 2017. "Tax reform in Japan: Is it welfare-enhancing?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 12-22.
    20. Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:19039. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.