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Economic effects of a nuclear-phase out policy: A CGE analysis

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Abstract

The paper investigates the long-run consequences of a phase-out of nuclear energy for the Swiss economy. We apply the CITE model, a CGE model with fully endogenous growth, and complement it with a bottom-up model. We find that the nuclear phase-out can be achieved at relatively low costs, even when the expansion capacities of other technologies are limited. Consumer welfare decreases by 0.4% at the maximum compared to business as usual. Our results show that an economy can cope well with ambitious energy policies through sufficient innovation. Economic growth is not slowed down significantly. The phase-out policy contributes to a structural shift in favor of innovative, energy extensive sectors. It does not work against the climate policy goals but rather accelerates the transition to a less energy-dependent economy.

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  • Lucas Bretschger & Lin Zhang & Roger Ramer, 2012. "Economic effects of a nuclear-phase out policy: A CGE analysis," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/167, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:12-167
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    Cited by:

    1. Meng, Sam & Siriwardana, Mahinda & McNeill, Judith & Nelson, Tim, 2018. "The impact of an ETS on the Australian energy sector: An integrated CGE and electricity modelling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 213-224.
    2. Katarzyna Zawalińska & Jouko Kinnunen & Piotr Gradziuk & Dorota Celińska-Janowicz, 2020. "To Whom Should We Grant a Power Plant? Economic Effects of Investment in Nuclear Energy in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-26, May.
    3. Won-Sik Hwang & Inha Oh & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2014. "Assessing the Socio-Economic Effects of Korea's Nuclear Power Policy," Energy & Environment, , vol. 25(5), pages 931-952, July.
    4. Hana Kim & Eui-Chan Jeon, 2020. "Structural Changes to Nuclear Energy Industries and the Economic Effects Resulting from Energy Transition Policies in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-17, April.
    5. Densing, M. & Panos, E. & Hirschberg, S., 2016. "Meta-analysis of energy scenario studies: Example of electricity scenarios for Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 998-1015.
    6. Bertrand Magné & Jean Chateau & Rob Dellink, 2014. "Global implications of joint fossil fuel subsidy reform and nuclear phase-out: an economic analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 677-690, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy and growth; nuclear phase out; CGE model; induced innovation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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