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Meta-analysis of energy scenario studies: Example of electricity scenarios for Switzerland

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  • Densing, M.
  • Panos, E.
  • Hirschberg, S.

Abstract

We present a meta-analysis of long-term energy-system scenario studies. The meta-analysis comprises a qualitative taxonomy of modeling approaches and a quantitative decomposition of scenario results across heterogenous studies. The analysis is exemplified by technology-detailed scenario studies of the Swiss electricity system. In the decomposition approach, we assess the variability across scenario results by a principal component analysis, which provides a low-dimensional approximation of multidimensional data. Additionally, by means of a distance measure, the extremality of a scenario result is evaluated, and a minimal set of representative scenarios is determined with respect to a considered scenario result. The proposed methods contribute to the analysis of commonality of modeling approaches and of multidimensional results across heterogenous scenario studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Densing, M. & Panos, E. & Hirschberg, S., 2016. "Meta-analysis of energy scenario studies: Example of electricity scenarios for Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 998-1015.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:109:y:2016:i:c:p:998-1015
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.020
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