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Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India

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  • V. Saravanakumar

Abstract

This study uses panel data for 39 years and 13 districts to estimate the yield sensitivity of major food crops to climate change in the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu. It first estimated the marginal impacts of climate variables on crop yield using Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) models. These estimates are then used to identify yield sensitivities in the future based on projected climate variables from the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). Empirical results show a quadratic (inverted U shaped) relationship between rice and sorghum yield and climate variables. As temperature and rainfall increase, crop yield initially increases up to a threshold level, and then decreases. Following the RegCM4 projections that observed warming and anomalies in rainfall will continue, this could result in a significant loss in crop productivity. Projections suggest that there may be a 10 percent decline in rice yield and 9 percent decline in sorghum yield by the end of the 21st century relative to average yields during 1971-2009. This indicates a need for new seed varieties that are less sensitive to rainfall and temperature thresholds, and, adaptation practices such as adjustments in sowing time

Suggested Citation

  • V. Saravanakumar, 2015. "Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India," Working Papers id:7555, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:7555
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    1. Xiujian Chen & Shu Lin & W. Robert Reed, 2005. "Another Look At What To Do With Time-Series Cross-Section Data," Econometrics 0506004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    1. Anubhab Pattanayak & K. S. Kavi Kumar, "undated". "Does Weather Sensitivity of Rice Yield Vary Across Regions? Evidence from Eastern and Southern India," Working Papers 2017-162, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    2. Sanjeev Kumar & Ajay K. Singh, 2023. "Modeling the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity: evidence from Himachal Pradesh, India," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 521-548, June.
    3. Meraj Sarwary & Senthilnathan Samiappan & Ghulam Dastgir Khan & Masaood Moahid, 2023. "Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    4. K.S. Kavi Kumar & Anubhab Pattanayak & Brinda Viswanathan & Ashish Chaturvedi, 2019. "Household Choice of Financial Borrowing and Its Source: Multinomial Probit Model with Selection," Working Papers 2019-182, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    5. Ramesh Kumar Kulanthaivelu & Sivakumar Iyyanar & Sathishkumar Ramakrishnan, 2022. "Climate Change and Agricultural Losses in India," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 81(2), pages 339-358, March.
    6. Venkatesh Paramesh & Parveen Kumar & Mohammad Shamim & Natesan Ravisankar & Vadivel Arunachalam & Arun Jyoti Nath & Trivesh Mayekar & Raghuveer Singh & Ashisa K. Prusty & Racharla Solomon Rajkumar & A, 2022. "Integrated Farming Systems as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change: Case Studies from Diverse Agro-Climatic Zones of India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    7. Raju Guntukula & Phanindra Goyari, 2020. "Climate Change Effects on the Crop Yield and Its Variability in Telangana, India," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 8(1), pages 119-148, June.

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