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Growth Cycles in France

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Listed:
  • Philip A. Klein
  • Geoffrey H. Moore

Abstract

[eng] Growth cycles in France. Philip A. Klein, Geoffrey H. Moore. This study is a part of the International Economie Indicators project launched by the authors in 1973 at the National Bureau of Economie Research and now continued at the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Rutgers University. The project was undertaken to study two questions initially. First, coula the methods developed at the National Bureau for monitoring classical U.S. business cycles be adapted to monitoring growth cycles ? Classical cycles are recurring but not periodic expansions and contractions in the level of aggregate economic activity. Growth cycles, more common in all market-oriented economies in thé past few décades, represent recurring fluctuations in thé rate of growth of aggregate économic activity and can be viewed as fluctuations in trend-adjusted series. The traditional methods of the National Bureau involve the analysis of quantitative indicators of aggregate activity.. The answer to the first question posed has been that the methods can indeed be adapted to measuring growth cycles. The second question was whether equivalents to the quantitative indicators used to monitor cycles in the U.S. could be developed for other market-oriented economics and could be similarly used ? Again the answer appears to be affirmative. The International Economic Indicators project produced growth cycle chronologies for not only the U.S., but for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and West Germany before turning attention to thé analysis of French cycles reported in this study. (Subsequent work has been devoted to a number of other market-oriented economics.). This study summarizes the method developed for monitoring growth cycles and applies the method to French growth cycles in the period 1950-1978. During this period we hâve found six French growth cycle peaks and six troughs. The series analyzed include Gross Domestic Product in constant prices, the Index of Industrial Production, Retail Sales volume, nonfarm employment, and registered unemployment. The five series are analyzed, a composite index representing ail five has been constructed, and emergent turning points have been studied. The evidence is systematically considered in relation to the growth cycle chronology produced. The resultant French growth cycle chronology is considered briefly in relation to comparable growth cycle chronologies in other European countries, in Japan, and in North America. Implications of the findings for further research are briefly considered. [fre] Cette étude fait partie du projet « Les indicateurs économiques internationaux », entreprise au National Bureau of Economie Research à New York en 1973 par les auteurs. Le travail continue maintenant au Centre pour la recherche sur les conjonctures internationales à Rutgers University. Au début, le projet s'est occupé de deux questions. D'abord, est-il possible d'adapter aux cycles de croissance les méthodes développées au National Bureau pour analyser les cycles classiques aux Etats-Unis ? Les cycles classiques sont des expansions et des contradictions au niveau d'activité économique totale. Ils reparaissent mais ils ne sont pas périodiques. Les cycles de croissance sont plus communs depuis les trente dernières années dans toutes les économies qui sont orientées vers le marché. Les cycles de croissance représentent les fluctuations dans le taux de croissance d'activité économique. Ils sont en effet des fluctuations dans les mesures d'activité ajustées pour la tendance à long terme. Les méthodes traditionnelles du National Bureau of Economie Research comprennent l'analyse des indicateurs quantitatifs d'activité économique.. La réponse à notre première question était qu'il est très possible d'adapter les méthodes traditionnelles à l'étude des cycles de croissance aux Etats-Unis. La deuxième question était : est-il possible de trouver les équivalents aux indicateurs quantitatifs utilisés aux Etats-Unis dans les autres pays orientés vers le marché, et y a-t-il les mêmes relations parmi les indicateurs quantitatifs dans les autres pays qu'on trouve aux Etats-Unis ? La réponse était encore affirmative. Le projet des Indicateurs économiques internationaux a produit des chronologies pour les cycles de croissance non seulement pour les Etats-Unis, mais pour le Canada, le Japon, le Royaume-Uni et l'Allemagne de l'Ouest avant d'analyser les cycles de crois­sance en France. (Le travail ultérieur se consacre aux cycles de croissance dans plusieurs autres économies orientées vers le marché.). Cette étude est un sommaire de la méthode développée pour analyser les cycles de croissance et ensuite appliquée à la méthode aux cycles de croissance en France pendant la période 1950-1978. Pendant ces années nous avons trouvé six pics et six creux en France. Les chiffres étudiés comprennent la production nationale brute aux prix constants, l'indice de production industrielle, le volume de vente au détail, l'emploi non agricole, et le chômage enregistré. Les cinq séries sont analysées, un indice composite est composé, et les tournants cycliques sont étudiés. L'évidence est considérée d'une façon systématique en ce qui concerne la chronologie de croissance qui était produite.. La chronologie des cycles de croissance français est comparée brièvement aux cycles de croissance dans les autres pays européens, au Japon, et dans l'Amérique du Nord. Les conséquences de nos conclusions pour de plus amples recherches futures sont considérées brièvement.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip A. Klein & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1981. "Growth Cycles in France," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 32(3), pages 468-489.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1981_num_32_3_408603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Victor Zarnowitz & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1977. "The Recession and Recovery of 1973-1976," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 4, number 4, pages 471-557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mint69-1.
    3. William Fellner, 1978. "Contemporary Economic Problems, 1978," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 918290, September.
    4. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Front matter to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67"," NBER Chapters, in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67, pages -13--4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Summary to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67"," NBER Chapters, in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67, pages 53-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2.
    7. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Methods of Dating Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67, pages 7-9, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
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