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A Model for Forecasting Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland

Author

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  • John FitzGerald

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

  • Jonathan Hore
  • Ide Kearney

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Abstract

This paper briefly outlines the methodology used to develop a new model of energy demand. It contains a description of the model equations used to determine the sectoral demand for energy. It details the set of engineering relationships in the electricity generation block, while then detailing the determination of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission levels. It then outlines the links between this energy model and the main HERMES macroeconomic model. It looks at the performance of the energy model within sample, and contains some preliminary estimates of the links between energy prices and taxes and the level of carbon dioxide emissions. Appendix 1 details the notation used in the databank, while Appendix 2 lists the full set of equations included in the current version of the energy model.

Suggested Citation

  • John FitzGerald & Jonathan Hore & Ide Kearney, 2002. "A Model for Forecasting Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland," Papers WP146, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp146
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott, Susan, 1991. "Domestic Electricity Demand," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS151.
    2. Conniffe, Denis & McCoy, Daniel, 1993. "Energy Elasticity Estimates and the Stability of the Relationship with GDP," Book Chapters, in: FitzGerald, John (ed.),Issues in Irish Energy Policy, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. John FitzGerald, 2000. "Energy Demand to 2015," Papers WP136, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Scott, Susan, 1980. "Energy Demand in Ireland: Projections and Policy Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS02.
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    6. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joe & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "Medium-Term Review 2003-2010, No. 9," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR09, march.
    7. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Smyth, Diarmaid, 1999. "Medium-Term Review 1999-2005, No. 7," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR07, march.
    8. Conniffe, Denis & Scott, Susan, 1990. "Energy Elasticities: Responsiveness of Demands for Fuels to Income and Price Changes," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS149.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hugh Hennessy & Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "The Impact of Government Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(2), pages 135-157.
    2. Legge, Thomas & Scott, Susan, 2009. "Policy Options to Reduce Ireland's GHG Emissions [Instrument choice: the pros and cons of alternative policy instruments]," Papers WP284, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Tol, Richard S. J., 2007. "Irish Climate Change Policy for 2012: An Assessment," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(4-Winter), pages 104-117.
    4. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Hyland, Marie, 2013. "Carbon tax scenarios and their effects on the Irish energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 404-414.
    5. Roantree, Barra & Doorley, Karina & Kakoulidou, Theano & O'Malley, Seamus, 2021. "Budget 2022," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor & Coffey, Cathal & Wendy Disch & Eva Shiel & Eoin Kenny, 2021. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2021," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC2021WIN, march.
    7. Hennessy, Hugh & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "The Impact of Climate Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," Papers WP342, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Lee, Timothy & Yao, Runming, 2013. "Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 363-372.
    9. Curtis, John, 2012. "The Environment Review 2012," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS26.
    10. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & O'Brien, Martin, 2007. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2007," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20074, march.
    11. Glynn, James & Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Bazilian, Morgan & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 312-325.
    12. Bercholz, Maxime & Roantree, Barra, 2019. "Carbon taxes and compensation options," Papers BP2020/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Richard S. J. Tol & Seán Lyons, 2008. "Incorporating GHG Emission Costs in the Economic Appraisal of Projects Supported by State Development Agencies," Papers WP247, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. O'Malley, Seamus & Roantree, Barra & Curtis, John, 2020. "Carbon taxes, poverty and compensation options," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number SUSTAT98.
    15. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, march.
    16. Legge, Thomas & Scott, Susan, 2009. "Policy Options to Reduce Ireland's Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS9.
    17. Celine Bout & Jay Sterling Gregg & James Haselip & Geraint Ellis, 2021. "How Is Social Acceptance Reflected in National Renewable Energy Plans? Evidence from Three Wind-Rich Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-19, July.
    18. FitzGerald, John & Keeney, Mary J. & McCarthy, Niamh & O'Malley, Eoin & Scott, Susan, 2005. "Aspects of Irish Energy Policy," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS57.
    19. De Bruin, Kelly C & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2019. "The effects of an incremental increase in the Irish carbon tax towards 2030," Papers WP619, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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