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Convergence Patterns in the World Economy: Exploring the Non-Linearity Hypothesis

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  • Artelaris, Panagiotis
  • Arvanitidis, Paschalis
  • Petrakos, George

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to question the conventional convergence literature, which bases its findings on the use of linear regression models. With the use of quadratic WLS regression analysis we show that a number of indicators of economic performance follow a pattern of change that is in essence non-linear. Our results indicate the formation of two clubs at the world scale: A convergence club that includes countries with a low to mediumhigh level of development and a divergence club including countries with a medium-high to very high levels of development. After a critical threshold the forces of divergence at the world scale dominate and the most dynamic countries eventually grow faster. Undoubtedly, the formation of a diverging leaders club and a further increase in world level development gap has serious implications for theory and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Artelaris, Panagiotis & Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George, 2008. "Convergence Patterns in the World Economy: Exploring the Non-Linearity Hypothesis," Papers dynreg32, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:dynreg32
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    2. Panagiotis Artelaris & George Petrakos, 2016. "Intraregional Spatial Inequalities and Regional Income Level in the European Union," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 39(3), pages 291-317, July.
    3. Arvanitidis Paschalis & Kollias Christos, 2016. "Converging Defence Burdens? Some Further Findings," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 365-375, December.
    4. Claudio Berardino & Giuseppe Mauro & Davide Quaglione & Alessandro Sarra, 2016. "Industrial Districts and Socio-economic Well-Being: An Investigation on the Italian Provinces Disparities," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 337-363, October.

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