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Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data

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  • MURASAWA Yasutomo

Abstract

To quantify qualitative survey data, the Carlson-Parkin method assumes normality, a time-invariant symmetric indifference interval, and long-run unbiased expectations. Interval-coded data do not require these assumptions. Since April 2004, the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey in Japan asks households their price expectations a year ahead in seven categories with partially known boundaries; thus one can identify up to six parameters including an indifference interval each month. This paper compares normal, skew normal, and skew t distributions, and finds that the skew t distribution fits the best throughout the period studied. The results help to understand the dynamics of heterogeneous expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • MURASAWA Yasutomo, 2010. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data," ESRI Discussion paper series 236, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:236
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    Cited by:

    1. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2017. "Measuring the Distributions of Public Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the UK," MPRA Paper 76244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nikola Mirkov & Andreas Steinhauer, 2014. "Are subjective distributions in inflation expectations symmetric?," ECON - Working Papers 173, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. Cacchiarelli, Luca & Carbone, Anna & Esti, Marco & Laureti, Tiziana & Sorrentino, Alessandro, 2015. "Assessing the Value of Quality in the Italian Wine Market," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211379, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2020. "Measuring public inflation perceptions and expectations in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 315-344, July.
    6. Cacchiarelli, Luca & Carbone, Anna & Esti, Marco & Laureti, Tiziana & Sorrentino, Alessandro, 2015. "Wine quality and prices: experts vs market," 143rd Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, March 25-27, 2015, Naples, Italy 202750, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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