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Measuring public inflation perceptions and expectations in the UK

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  • Yasutomo Murasawa

    (Konan University)

Abstract

The Bank of England Inflation Attitudes Survey asks individuals about their inflation perceptions and expectations in eight intervals including an indifference limen. This paper studies fitting a mixture normal distribution to such interval data, allowing for multiple modes. Bayesian analysis is useful since ML estimation may fail. A hierarchical prior helps to obtain a weakly informative prior. The No-U-Turn Sampler speeds up posterior simulation. Permutation invariant parameters are free from the label switching problem. The paper estimates the distributions of public inflation perceptions and expectations in the UK during 2001Q1–2017Q4. The estimated means are useful for measuring information rigidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasutomo Murasawa, 2020. "Measuring public inflation perceptions and expectations in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 315-344, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01675-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01675-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian; Indifference limen; Information rigidity; Interval data; Normal mixture; No-U-Turn Sampler;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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