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Evolutionary Micro-dynamics and Changes in the Economic Structure

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  • André Lorentz
  • Maria Savona

Abstract

The paper aims to account for the empirical stylised facts related to changes in sectoral structures that have led to the growth of services in most advanced countries over recent decades. A growth model with evolutionary micro-founded structural change is developed, which formalises the role of technical change and changes in intermediate demand as they affect the evolution of the sectoral composition of the economy and macro-economic growth. Firstly, we provide a micro-foundation for the Kaldorian Cumulative Causation mechanism. Secondly, we account for (demand-related) macro-constraints affecting the micro-behaviour of firms in the decision to adopt technology. We also formalise the mechanisms transmitting the effects of micro-behaviour on aggregate growth, via changes in the intermediate linkages and sectoral composition of the economy. The simulated results are based on the use of the actual data, including Input-Output (I-O) coefficients in the case of Germany. Three scenarios are identified, which account for the effects of a set of key parameters on changes in the structure of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • André Lorentz & Maria Savona, 2007. "Evolutionary Micro-dynamics and Changes in the Economic Structure," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2007-17, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    • Handle: RePEc:esi:evopap:2007-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faïz Gallouj, 2002. "Innovation in the Service Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2391.
    2. Maria Savona & André Lorentz, 2005. "Demand and Technology Contribution to Structural Change and Tertiarisation. An Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis," Post-Print halshs-00284434, HAL.
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    10. Maria Savona & André Lorentz, 2005. "Demand and Technology Determinants of Structural Change and Tertiarisation: An Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis for four OECD Countries," LEM Papers Series 2005/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
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    17. Henk Kox & Luis Rubalcaba, 2007. "The Contribution of Business Services to European Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Luis Rubalcaba & Henk Kox (ed.), Business Services in European Economic Growth, chapter 4, pages 74-94, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    20. Kox, Henk L.M. & Rubalcaba, Luis, 2007. "Analysing the contribution of business services to European economic growth," MPRA Paper 2003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Michael Peneder & Serguei Kaniovski & Bernhard Dachs, 2003. "What follows tertiarisation? structural change and the role of knowledge-based services," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 47-66, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Yongbin & Shi, Yajuan & Wang, Zheng, 2014. "How much CO2 emissions will be reduced through industrial structure change if China focuses on domestic rather than international welfare?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 168-179.
    2. Di Domenico, Lorenzo & Raberto, Marco & Safarzynska, Karolina, 2023. "Resource scarcity, circular economy and the energy rebound: A macro-evolutionary input-output model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Zhangqi Zhong & Lingyun He, 2022. "Macro-Regional Economic Structural Change Driven by Micro-founded Technological Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Computational Economic Modeling Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 471-525, February.
    4. Jing Wu & Rayman Mohamed & Zheng Wang, 2017. "An Agent-Based Model to Project China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peaks at Multiple Levels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Bo Carlsson & Gunnar Eliasson & Karolin Sjöö, 2018. "The Swedish industrial support program of the 1970s revisited," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 805-835, September.
    6. Gu, Gaoxiang & Wang, Zheng & Wu, Leying, 2021. "Carbon emission reductions under global low-carbon technology transfer and its policy mix with R&D improvement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Benoît Desmarchelier & Faïz Gallouj, 2013. "Endogenous growth and environmental policy: are the processes of growth and tertiarization in developed economies reversible?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 831-860, September.
    8. Gu, Gaoxiang & Wang, Zheng, 2018. "China’s carbon emissions abatement under industrial restructuring by investment restriction," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 133-144.
    9. Andrea Ascani & Simona Iammarino, 2018. "Multinational enterprises, service outsourcing and regional structural change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1585-1611.
    10. Florent Bordot & Andre Lorentz, 2021. "Automation and labor market polarization in an evolutionary model with heterogeneous workers," LEM Papers Series 2021/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Tommaso Ciarli & André Lorentz & Maria Savona & Marco Valente, 2010. "The Effect Of Consumption And Production Structure On Growth And Distribution. A Micro To Macro Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 180-218, February.
    12. Andre Lorentz & Tommaso Ciarli & Maria Savona & Marco Valente, 2019. "Structural Transformations and Cumulative Causation: Towards an Evolutionary Micro-foundation of the Kaldorian Growth Model," Working Papers of BETA 2019-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    13. Rinaldo Evangelista & Maria Savona, 2010. "Innovation and Employment in Services," Chapters, in: Faïz Gallouj & Faridah Djellal (ed.), The Handbook of Innovation and Services, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Zhangqi, Zhong & Zhuli, Chen & Lingyun, He, 2022. "Technological innovation, industrial structural change and carbon emission transferring via trade-------An agent-based modeling approach," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Gunnar Eliasson, 2018. "Why Complex, Data Demanding and Difficult to Estimate Agent Based Models? Lessons from a Decades Long Research Program," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 4-60.
    16. Gaoxiang Gu & Zheng Wang, 2019. "The Limit of Global Carbon Tax and its Climatic and Economic Effects," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 169-189, January.
    17. Benoît Desmarchelier & Faïz Gallouj, 2010. "Endogenous growth and environmental policy: are the processes of growth and tertiarisation in developed economies reversible? An evolutionary perspective," Working Papers hal-01111789, HAL.
    18. Gu, Gaoxiang & Wang, Zheng, 2018. "Research on global carbon abatement driven by R&D investment in the context of INDCs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 662-675.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Structural change; Growth of Services; Evolutionary Micro-foundation; Input-Output Length 36 pages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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