IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ese/emodwp/em12-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nowcasting: estimating developments in the risk of poverty and income distribution in 2013 and 2014

Author

Listed:
  • Leventi, Chrysa
  • Rastrigina, Olga
  • Sutherland, Holly

Abstract

The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is crucial for monitoring of the social situation and of the effectiveness of tax and benefit policies. However, partly due to the complexity of EU-SILC data collection, estimates of the number of people at risk of poverty are published with a significant delay. This paper extends and updates previous work on estimating (‘nowcasting’) indicators of poverty risk using the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD. The model’s routines are enhanced with additional adjustments to the EU-SILC based input data in order to capture changes in the employment characteristics of the population since the data were collected. The nowcasting method is applied to seventeen EU Member States. AROP rates are estimated up to 2014 for ten countries and 2013 for the remaining seven countries. The performance of the method is assessed by comparing the predictions with actual EU-SILC indicators for the years for which the latter are available.

Suggested Citation

  • Leventi, Chrysa & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly, 2015. "Nowcasting: estimating developments in the risk of poverty and income distribution in 2013 and 2014," EUROMOD Working Papers EM12/15, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em12-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/euromod/em12-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The benefits of linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    2. François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6586.
    3. Leventi, Chrysa & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly, 2015. "Nowcasting risk of poverty and low work intensity in Europe," EUROMOD Working Papers EM9/15, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Mariña Fernández Salgado & Francesco Figari & Holly Sutherland & Alberto Tumino, 2014. "Welfare Compensation for Unemployment in the Great Recession," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 177-204, May.
    5. Francesco Figari & Andrea Salvatori & Holly Sutherland, 2011. "Economic Downturn and Stress Testing European Welfare Systems," Research in Labor Economics, in: Who Loses in the Downturn? Economic Crisis, Employment and Income Distribution, pages 257-286, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Manos Matsaganis & Chrysa Leventi, 2014. "Poverty and Inequality during the Great Recession in Greece," Political Studies Review, Political Studies Association, vol. 12(2), pages 209-223, May.
    7. repec:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i::p:s177-s204 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Francesco Figari & Maria Iacovou & Alexandra Skew & Holly Sutherland, 2012. "Approximations to the Truth: Comparing Survey and Microsimulation Approaches to Measuring Income for Social Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 105(3), pages 387-407, February.
    9. Herwig Immervoll & Horacio Levy & Christine Lietz & Daniela Mantovani & Holly Sutherland, 2006. "The sensitivity of poverty rates to macro-level changes in the European Union," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 30(2), pages 181-199, March.
    10. Tim Goedemé & Karel Van den Bosch & Lina Salanauskaite & Gerlinde Verbist, 2013. "Testing the Statistical Significance of Microsimulation Results: A Plea," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(3), pages 50-77.
    11. Jekaterina Navicke & Olga Rastrigina & Holly Sutherland, 2014. "Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 101-119, October.
    12. Essama-Nssah, B., 2005. "The poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks and policies : a review of modeling approaches," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3682, The World Bank.
    13. Mike Brewer & James Browne & Andrew Hood & Robert Joyce & Luke Sibieta, 2013. "The Short‐ and Medium‐Term Impacts of the Recession on the UK Income Distribution," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 179-201, June.
    14. Tim Goedemé & Karel Van den Bosch & Lina Salanauskaite & Gerlinde Verbist, 2013. "Testing the Statistical Significance of Microsimulation Results: Often Easier than You Think. A Technical Note," ImPRovE Working Papers 13/10, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manos Matsaganis & Chrysa Leventi, 2014. "Distributive Effects of the Crisis and Austerity in Seven EU Countries," ImPRovE Working Papers 14/04, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    2. Ekaterina Tosheva & Iva Tasseva & Dragomir Draganov & Venelin Boshnakov, 2016. "Effects of changes in tax-transfer system on households income distribution in Bulgaria: simulation analysis using EUROMOD for 2011-2015," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 51-71,72-91.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leventi, Chrysa & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly & Vujackov, Sanja, 2016. "Nowcasting: estimating developments in median household income and risk of poverty in 2014 and 2015," EUROMOD Working Papers EM8/16, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Jekaterina Navicke & Olga Rastrigina & Holly Sutherland, 2014. "Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 101-119, October.
    3. Manos Matsaganis & Chrysa Leventi, 2014. "Distributive Effects of the Crisis and Austerity in Seven EU Countries," ImPRovE Working Papers 14/04, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    4. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl, 2018. "An unemployment insurance scheme for the euro area? A comparison of different alternatives using microdata," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(1), pages 273-309, February.
    5. Leventi, Chrysa & Navicke, Jekaterina & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly, 2014. "Nowcasting risk of poverty and income distribution in the EU in 2013," EUROMOD Working Papers EM11/14, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Michał Brzeziński, 2015. "Inequality of opportunity in Europe before and after the Great Recession," Working Papers 2015-02, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    7. Alari Paulus & Holly Sutherland & Iva Tasseva, 2020. "Indexing Out of Poverty? Fiscal Drag and Benefit Erosion in Cross‐National Perspective," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 311-333, June.
    8. Dolls, Mathias & Lewney, Richard, 2017. "Backward-looking analysis," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 149873.
    9. Marx, Ive & Nolan, Brian & Olivera, Javier, 2014. "The Welfare State and Anti-Poverty Policy in Rich Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 8154, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Iryna Kyzyma & Jinjing Li & Jules Linden & Raymond Wagener, 2022. "The COVID-19 resilience of a continental welfare regime - nowcasting the distributional impact of the crisis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 777-809, December.
    11. Andrea Albarea & Michele Bernasconi & Anna Marenzi & Dino Rizzi, 2020. "Income Underreporting and Tax Evasion in Italy: Estimates and Distributional Effects," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(4), pages 904-930, December.
    12. Olga Cantó & Francesco Figari & Carlo V. Fiorio & Sarah Kuypers & Sarah Marchal & Marina Romaguera‐de‐la‐Cruz & Iva V. Tasseva & Gerlinde Verbist, 2022. "Welfare Resilience at the Onset of COVID‐19 Pandemic in a Selection of European Countries: Impact on Public Finance and Household Incomes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 293-322, June.
    13. Petr Janský & Klára Kalíšková & Daniel Münich, 2016. "Does the Czech Tax and Benefit System Contribute to One of Europe’s Lowest Levels of Relative Income Poverty and Inequality?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 191-207, May.
    14. Figari, Francesco & Paulus, Alari & Sutherland, Holly, 2014. "Microsimulation and policy analysis," ISER Working Paper Series 2014-23, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    15. Fidel Picos & Marie-Luise Schmitz, 2016. "In-depth analysis of tax reforms using the EUROMOD microsimulation model," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2016-06, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Gasior, Katrin & Rastrigina, Olga, 2017. "Nowcasting: timely indicators for monitoring risk of poverty in 2014-2016," EUROMOD Working Papers EM7/17, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    17. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Neumann, Dirk & Peichl, Andreas, 2014. "An Unemployment Insurance Scheme for the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & John Cockburn, 2010. "Guest Editorial - Macro-micro analytics: background, motivation, advantages and remaining challenges," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7.
    19. Eirini Andriopoulou & Eleni Kanavitsa & Panos Tsakloglou, 2019. "Decomposing Poverty in Hard Times: Greece 2007-2016," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 27(2), pages 125-168.
    20. Olivier Bargain & Tim Callan, 2010. "Analysing the effects of tax-benefit reforms on income distribution: a decomposition approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em12-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jonathan Nears (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rcessuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.