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Nowcasting risk of poverty and income distribution in the EU in 2013

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  • Leventi, Chrysa
  • Navicke, Jekaterina
  • Rastrigina, Olga
  • Sutherland, Holly

Abstract

The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is critical for monitoring the effectiveness of policies. However, due in part to the complicated nature of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), estimates of the number of people at risk of poverty are published with a 2 to 3 year delay. This paper presents a method of estimating (‘nowcasting’) the current distribution of income between households, including the at-risk-of-poverty rate, using a tax-benefit microsimulation model (EUROMOD) based on the EU-SILC, combined with up-to-date macro-level statistics. The method is applied to 13 EU Member States experiencing differing economic conditions over the period, including those which have been affected comparatively little by the crisis as well as those which have suffered a major reduction in economic activity and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Leventi, Chrysa & Navicke, Jekaterina & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly, 2014. "Nowcasting risk of poverty and income distribution in the EU in 2013," EUROMOD Working Papers EM11/14, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em11-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leventi, Chrysa & Figari, Francesco & Paulus, Alari & Avram, Silvia & Matsaganis, Manos & Navicke, Jekaterina & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly & Militaru, Eva & Levy, Horacio, 2013. "The distributional effects of fiscal consolidation in nine EU countries," EUROMOD Working Papers EM2/13, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Mariña Fernández Salgado & Francesco Figari & Holly Sutherland & Alberto Tumino, 2014. "Welfare Compensation for Unemployment in the Great Recession," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 177-204, May.
    3. François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luis Pereira, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754864, HAL.
    4. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G. & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. & Picchetti, Paulo, 2004. "Can the distributional impacts of macroeconomic shocks be predicted? A comparison of the performance of macro-micro models with historical data for Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3303, The World Bank.
    5. Essama-Nssah, B., 2005. "The poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks and policies : a review of modeling approaches," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3682, The World Bank.
    6. Mike Brewer & James Browne & Andrew Hood & Robert Joyce & Luke Sibieta, 2013. "The Short‐ and Medium‐Term Impacts of the Recession on the UK Income Distribution," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 179-201, June.
    7. A B Atkinson, 2013. "Ensuring social inclusion in changing labour and capital markets," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 481, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gijs Dekkers & Ekaterina Tarantchenko & Karel Van den Bosch, 2019. "Working Paper 03-19 - Medium-term projection for Belgium of the at-risk-of-poverty and social exclusion indicators based on EU-SILC [Working Paper 03-19 - Prévisions à moyen terme des indicateurs d," Working Papers 1903, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.

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