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The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Cashin
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Maziar Raissi
  • Mehdi Raissi

    (International Monetary Fund
    Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales Ibn Tofail-Kenitra-Maroc)

Abstract

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Maziar Raissi & Mehdi Raissi, 2013. "The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles," Working Papers 750, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:750
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2019. "The US oil supply revolution and the global economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1515-1546, November.
    2. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    3. Burney, Nadeem A. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Alawadhi, Ahmad & Al-Musallam, Marwa, 2018. "The dynamics and determinants of Kuwait's long-run economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 289-304.
    4. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    5. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    6. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    8. Mohaddes Kamiar & Raissi Mehdi, 2013. "Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 99-131, August.
    9. Amany El-Anshasy & Kamiar Mohaddes & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2015. "Oil, Volatility and Institutions: Cross-Country Evidence from Major Oil Producers," Working Papers EPRG 1513, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    10. Gunter, Ulrich & Zekan, Bozana, 2021. "Forecasting air passenger numbers with a GVAR model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2014. "Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2014/241, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Xue, Huidan & Li, Chenguang & Wang, Liming, 2018. "The Global Vector Error Correction Model application on the dynamics and drivers of the World Butter Export Prices: Evidence from the U.S., the EU, and New Zealand," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273971, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Daniel Zerfu Gurara & Mthuli Ncube, 2013. "We develop a global vector autoregressive model (GVAR) to analyze the global growth spillover effects on Africa. The model contains 46 African countries and 30 developed and emerging market countries,," Working Paper Series 981, African Development Bank.
    14. Alotaibi, Abdullah R. & Mishra, Anil V., 2015. "Global and regional volatility spillovers to GCC stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-49.
    15. Mohamed BELHEDI & Ines SLAMA & Amine LAHIANI, 2015. "Tranmission Of International Shocks To An Emerging Small Open-Economy: Evidence From Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 231-258.
    16. Somar Almohamad & Anil V. Mishra & Xiao Yu, 2018. "Mena Stock Markets Integration: Pre and Post Global Financial Crisis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 107-141, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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