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The Influence of Temperature on Spike Probability in Day-Ahead Power Prices

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  • Huisman, R.

Abstract

It is well known that day-ahead prices in power markets exhibit spikes. These spikes are sudden increases in the day-ahead price that occur because power production is not flexible enough to respond to demand and/or supply shocks in the short term. This paper focuses on how temperature influences the probability on a spike. The paper shows that the difference between the actual and expected temperature significantly influences the probability on a spike and that the impact of temperature on spike probability depends on the season.

Suggested Citation

  • Huisman, R., 2007. "The Influence of Temperature on Spike Probability in Day-Ahead Power Prices," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-039-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:10179
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    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/10179/ERS-2007-039-F&A.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huisman, Ronald & Huurman, Christian & Mahieu, Ronald, 2007. "Hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 240-248, March.
    2. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Serati, Massimiliano & Manera, Matteo & Plotegher, Michele, 2008. "Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal," International Energy Markets Working Papers 44426, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Christian Huurman & Francesco Ravazzolo & Chen Zhou, 2008. "The power of weather. Some empirical evidence on predicting day-ahead power prices through weather forecasts," Working Paper 2008/08, Norges Bank.
    3. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Day-ahead power price; Power production; Spike probability; Temperature;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

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