IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unm/umamer/2005015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Self-organization of R&D search in complex technology spaces

Author

Listed:
  • Silverberg, Gerald
  • Verspagen, Bart

    (MERIT)

Abstract

We extend an earlier model of innovation dynamics based on invasive percolation by adding endogenous R&D search by economically motivated firms. The {0,1} seeding of the technol-ogy lattice is now replaced by draws from a lognormal distribution for technology ‘difficulty’. Firms are rewarded for successful innovations by increases in their R&D budget. We compare two regimes. In the first, firms are fixed in a region of technology space. In the second, they can change their location by myopically comparing progress in their local neighborhoods and probabilistically moving to the region with the highest recent progress. We call this the mov-ing or self-organizational regime. We find that as the mean and standard deviation of the log-normal distribution are varied, the relative rates of aggregate innovation switches between the two regimes. The SO regime has higher innovation rates, other things being equal, for lower means or higher standard deviations of the lognormal distribution. This results holds for in-creasing size of the search radius. The clustering of firms in the SO regime grows rapidly and fluctuates in a complex way around a high value which increases with the search radius. We also investigate the size distributions of the innovations generated in each regime. In the fixed one, the distribution is approximately lognormal and certainly not fat tailed. In the SO regime, the distributions are radically different. They are much more highly right skewed and show scaling over at least two decades with a slope of almost exactly one, independently of parame-ter settings. Thus we argue that firm self-organization leads to self-organized criticality. (Keywords: innovation, percolation, search, technological change, R&D, clustering, self-organized criticality.

Suggested Citation

  • Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2005. "Self-organization of R&D search in complex technology spaces," Research Memorandum 015, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:umamer:2005015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unu-merit.nl/publications/rmpdf/2005/rm2005-015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manuel Trajtenberg, 1990. "A Penny for Your Quotes: Patent Citations and the Value of Innovations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(1), pages 172-187, Spring.
    2. Winter, Sidney G., 1984. "Schumpeterian competition in alternative technological regimes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(3-4), pages 287-320.
    3. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2007. "The size distribution of innovations revisited: An application of extreme value statistics to citation and value measures of patent significance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 318-339, August.
    4. Dietmar Harhoff & Frederic M. Scherer & Katrin Vopel, 1997. "Exploring the Tail of Patented Invention Value Distributions," CIG Working Papers FS IV 97-27, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    5. Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 27(5), pages 671-693, September.
    6. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    7. Silverberg, Gerald, 2002. "The discrete charm of the bourgeoisie: quantum and continuous perspectives on innovation and growth," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1275-1289, December.
    8. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    9. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:49-50:p:19 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. F. M. Scherer, 1998. "The Size Distribution of Profits from Innovation," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 49-50, pages 495-516.
    11. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2005. "A percolation model of innovation in complex technology spaces," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 225-244, January.
    12. Nelson, Richard R. & Winter, Sidney G., 1993. "In search of useful theory of innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 108-108, April.
    13. Dietmar Harhoff & Francis Narin & F. M. Scherer & Katrin Vopel, 1999. "Citation Frequency And The Value Of Patented Inventions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 511-515, August.
    14. Scherer, F. M. & Harhoff, Dietmar, 2000. "Technology policy for a world of skew-distributed outcomes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 559-566, April.
    15. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    16. F. M. Scherer & Dietmar Harhoff & J, rg Kukies, 2000. "Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 175-200.
    17. Pier P. Saviotti, 1996. "Technological Evolution, Variety and the Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 727.
    18. Frenken, Koen & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2000. "Scaling trajectories in civil aircraft (1913-1997)," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 331-348, March.
    19. Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, B., 2003. "Brewing the future: stylized facts about innovation and their confrontation with a percolation model," Working Papers 03.06, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
    20. Foray, Dominique & Grubler, Arnulf, 1990. "Morphological analysis, diffusion and lockout of technologies: Ferrous casting in France and the FRG," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 535-550, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Ricottilli, 2006. "Constraints and Freedom of Action: a fitness trade-off," Working Papers 580, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. Jeff Alstott & Giorgio Triulzi & Bowen Yan & Jianxi Luo, 2017. "Mapping technology space by normalizing patent networks," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 110(1), pages 443-479, January.
    3. Lin, Ying-Ting & Han, Xiao-Pu & Wang, Bing-Hong, 2014. "Dynamics of human innovative behaviors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 74-81.
    4. Heinrich, Torsten, 2014. "Standard wars, tied standards, and network externality induced path dependence in the ICT sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 309-320.
    5. Jiaofeng Pan & Jianxin Guo, 2022. "Innovative Collaboration and Acceleration: an Integrated Framework Based on Knowledge Transfer and Triple Helix," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(4), pages 3223-3247, December.
    6. Bogner, Kristina, 2015. "The effect of project funding on innovative performance: An agent-based simulation model," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 10-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, B., 2003. "Brewing the future: stylized facts about innovation and their confrontation with a percolation model," Working Papers 03.06, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
    2. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2005. "A percolation model of innovation in complex technology spaces," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 225-244, January.
    3. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology," Research Memorandum 032, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Bulat Sanditov, 2005. "Patent Citations, the Value of Innovations and Path-Dependency," KITeS Working Papers 177, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Nov 2005.
    5. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
    6. G. Silverberg, 2007. "Long Waves: Conceptual, Empirical and Modelling Issues," Chapters, in: Horst Hanusch & Andreas Pyka (ed.), Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, chapter 50, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2007. "The size distribution of innovations revisited: An application of extreme value statistics to citation and value measures of patent significance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 318-339, August.
    8. Carolina Castaldi & Bart Los, 2008. "The identification of important innovations using tail estimators," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-07, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Feb 2008.
    9. Andreas Reinstaller & Peter Reschenhofer, 2017. "Using PageRank in the analysis of technological progress through patents: an illustration for biotechnological inventions," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 113(3), pages 1407-1438, December.
    10. Nuvolari, Alessandro & Tartari, Valentina & Tranchero, Matteo, 2021. "Patterns of innovation during the Industrial Revolution: A reappraisal using a composite indicator of patent quality," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. William Kingston, 2004. "Nelson's Concerns About Intellectual Property," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000000461, David K. Levine.
    12. Ebersberger, Bernd & Marsili, Orietta & Reichstein, Toke & Salter, Ammon, 2008. "Fortune favours the brave: The distribution of innovative returns in Finland, the Netherlands and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 357-362, December.
    13. Giovanni Dosi & Richard Nelson, 2013. "The Evolution of Technologies: An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(1), pages 3-46, June.
    14. Frenken, Koen & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2000. "Scaling trajectories in civil aircraft (1913-1997)," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 331-348, March.
    15. Nicolas van Zeebroeck, 2011. "The puzzle of patent value indicators," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 33-62.
    16. Ivan Savin, 2021. "On optimal regimes of knowledge exchange: a model of recombinant growth and firm networks," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(3), pages 497-527, July.
    17. Ahlvik, Lassi & van den Bijgaart, Inge, 2024. "Screening green innovation through carbon pricing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Gilles Koléda, 2005. "La valeur de la protection des brevets français appréciée par leurs renouvellements," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 168(2), pages 97-114.
    19. Mariani, Manuel Sebastian & Medo, Matúš & Lafond, François, 2019. "Early identification of important patents: Design and validation of citation network metrics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 644-654.
    20. Aaron K. Chatterji & Kira Fabrizio, 2012. "How Do Product Users Influence Corporate Invention?," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 971-987, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    research and development ;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:umamer:2005015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Leonne Portz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/meritnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.