IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ems/eureir/6940.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real time estimates of GDP growth, based on two-regime models

Author

Listed:
  • de Groot, E.A.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

This paper builds on De Groot and Franses (2005) (Econometric Institute Report 2005-01). It modifies the EICIE, the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy, by allowing for two regimes. These regimes are marked by positive or negative annual growth in the staffing services data. Real time estimates of GDP growth for 2005 quarters 1 and 2, using this non-linear model, have been published in a Dutch language article in the ESB of April 22 2005 and of July 15 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Real time estimates of GDP growth, based on two-regime models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:6940
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/6940/ei2005-32.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Real time estimates of GDP growth," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. den Reijer, Ard H.J., 2011. "Regional and sectoral dynamics of the Dutch staffing labor cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1826-1837, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khémiri, Wafa & Noubbigh, Hédi, 2020. "Size-threshold effect in debt-firm performance nexus in the sub-Saharan region: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 335-344.
    2. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3455-3480.
    3. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    4. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    5. Sibel Cengiz & Afsin Sahin, 2014. "Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 113-127, April.
    6. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bonciani, Dario, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks: it's a matter of habit," MPRA Paper 59370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT, 2022. "Testing the weak form efficiency of the French ETF market with the LSTAR-ANLSTGARCH approach using a semiparametric estimation," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13, pages 228-253, June.
    9. Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2017. "“Conditional PPP” and real exchange rate convergence in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 78-92.
    10. Magdalena Osińska & Tadeusz Kufel & Marcin Błażejowski & Paweł Kufel, 2020. "Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1381-1430, March.
    11. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah & Midi, Habshah, 2008. "Monetary exchange rate model: supportive evidence from nonlinear testing procedures," MPRA Paper 7293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sandra Eickmeier & Norbert Metiu & Esteban Prieto, 2016. "Time-varying volatility, financial intermediation and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2016-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Gengnan Chiang & Chin-Chi Liu & Hui-Hsuan Liu, 2022. "The Threshold Effect of Regulatory Quality on the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Asian Countries," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 1-6.
    14. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
    15. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Market efficiency and the Euro: the case of the Athens stock exchange," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 237-251, July.
    17. Ana Venâncio & João Jorge, 2022. "The role of accelerator programmes on the capital structure of start-ups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1143-1167, October.
    18. Rossouw, Stephanie & Greyling, Talita & Adhikari, Tamanna & Morrison, Phillip S., 2020. "Markov switching models for happiness during a pandemic: The New-Zealand experience," GLO Discussion Paper Series 573, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    19. Hao FANG & Yang-Cheng Lu & Hwey-Yun Yau & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2013. "Stock Characteristics Herded By Foreign Investors With Higher Abnormal Returns In The Taiwan Stock Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 232-245, December.
    20. Munehisa Kasuya, 2003. "Regime-Switching Approach to Monetary Policy Effects: Empirical Studies using a Smooth Transition Vector Autoregressive Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    21. Lucidi, Francesco Simone & Semmler, Willi, 2023. "Long-run scarring effects of meltdowns in a small-scale nonlinear quadratic model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; current indicator; staffing;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:6940. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePub (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feeurnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.