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Bayesian Population Dynamics of Spreading Species

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  • arnaud dragicevic

    (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)

Abstract

The invasion of native species by exotic species is one of the most serious threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Despite a number of empirical and theoretical studies, there is still no general model about why or when settlement becomes invasion. The purpose of this work is to test a model of Bayesian population dynamics relying on best-response strategies that could help in resource management and bioeconomic modeling. Given the exotic species survival probability, our static game unveils a breaking-level probability in mixed-strategies, where it is in the interest of exotic species to invade and in the interest of native species to resist. In dynamic setting, we introduce a stochastic version of the balance equation based on conditional probabilities. When the exotic species survival probability and the availability of resources in the ecosystem are respectively high and low, the dynamics shows that the convergence of subpopulations toward steady-states operates at a high pace.

Suggested Citation

  • arnaud dragicevic, 2012. "Bayesian Population Dynamics of Spreading Species," THEMA Working Papers 2012-30, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2012-30
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    File URL: http://thema.u-cergy.fr/IMG/documents/2012-30.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arnoldo Frigessi & Marit Holden & Clare Marshall & Hildegunn Viljugrein & Nils Chr. Stenseth & Lars Holden & Vladimir Ageyev & Nikolay L. Klassovskiy, 2005. "Bayesian Population Dynamics of Interacting Species: Great Gerbils and Fleas in Kazakhstan," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 230-238, March.
    2. Glenn Ellison & Drew Fudenberg, 1995. "Word-of-Mouth Communication and Social Learning," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 93-125.
    3. Born, Wanda & Rauschmayer, Felix & Brauer, Ingo, 2005. "Economic evaluation of biological invasions--a survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 321-336, November.
    4. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Shogren, Jason F., 2005. "Managing exotic pests under uncertainty: optimal control actions and bioeconomic investigations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 327-339, February.
    5. Marten, Alex L. & Moore, Christopher C., 2011. "An options based bioeconomic model for biological and chemical control of invasive species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2050-2061, September.
    6. Lars J. Olson & Santanu Roy, 2002. "The Economics of Controlling a Stochastic Biological Invasion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1311-1316.
    7. Sebert-Cuvillier, Emmanuelle & Paccaut, Frédéric & Chabrerie, Olivier & Endels, Patrick & Goubet, Olivier & Decocq, Guillaume, 2007. "Local population dynamics of an invasive tree species with a complex life-history cycle: A stochastic matrix model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 127-143.
    8. Rohan Jayasuriya & Randall Jones & Remy Ven, 2011. "A bioeconomic model for determining the optimal response strategies for a new weed incursion," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 45-72, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bioeconomics; best-responses; balance equation; Bayesian population dynamics; resource management; biodiversity; invasive species.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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