IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i16p9832-d883840.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate Smart Pest Management

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoxue Du

    (Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA)

  • Levan Elbakidze

    (Davis College of Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Design, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506, USA)

  • Liang Lu

    (Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA)

  • R. Garth Taylor

    (Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA)

Abstract

This study examines the role of weather and pest infestation forecasts in agricultural pest management, taking into account potential correlation between weather and pest population prediction errors. First, we analytically illustrate the role of the correlation between weather and pest infestation forecast errors in pest management using a stochastic optimal control framework. Next, using stochastic dynamic programming, we empirically simulate optimal pest management trajectory within a growing season, taking into account correlation between weather and pest population prediction errors. We used lentil production in the Palouse area of northern Idaho and eastern Washington as a case study, where pesticide use was restricted due to environmental or health reasons. We showed that the benefit of applying pesticides later in the growing season can outweigh benefits of early application when pesticide use is restricted due to environmental or health regulations. The value of information is close to $9 per acre, approximately 8% of the expected net returns per acre, and close to $12 per acre ($106–$94), or approximately 13% of the expected net returns per acre for the baseline versus the climate change scenarios, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoxue Du & Levan Elbakidze & Liang Lu & R. Garth Taylor, 2022. "Climate Smart Pest Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:16:p:9832-:d:883840
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/16/9832/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/16/9832/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cobourn, Kelly M. & Burrack, Hannah J. & Goodhue, Rachael E. & Williams, Jeffrey C. & Zalom, Frank G., 2011. "Implications of simultaneity in a physical damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 278-289, September.
    2. Chang,Fwu-Ranq, 2009. "Stochastic Optimization in Continuous Time," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521541947, January.
    3. Thomas L. Marsh & Ray G. Huffaker & Garrell E. Long, 2000. "Optimal Control of Vector-Virus-Plant Interactions: The Case of Potato Leafroll Virus Net Necrosis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 556-569.
    4. Greg Hertzler, 1991. "Dynamic Decisions under Risk: Application of Ito Stochastic Control in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1126-1137.
    5. Zhang, Wei & Swinton, Scott M., 2009. "Incorporating natural enemies in an economic threshold for dynamically optimal pest management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(9), pages 1315-1324.
    6. Richard M. Adams & Stephen Polasky, 1998. "The Value of El Niño Forecasts in the Management of Salmon: A Stochastic Dynamic Assessment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 765-777.
    7. Liang Lu & Ruby Nguyen & Md Mamunur Rahman & Jason Winfree, 2021. "Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain," NBER Chapters, in: Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains, pages 107-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," Working Papers 28536, Arizona State University, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management.
    9. Marten, Alex L. & Moore, Christopher C., 2011. "An options based bioeconomic model for biological and chemical control of invasive species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2050-2061, September.
    10. Lars J. Olson & Santanu Roy, 2002. "The Economics of Controlling a Stochastic Biological Invasion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1311-1316.
    11. Erik Lichtenberg & David Zilberman, 1986. "The Econometrics of Damage Control: Why Specification Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 261-273.
    12. Rahman, Md Mamunur & Nguyen, Ruby & Lu, Liang, 2022. "Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    13. Dwight R. Sanders, 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1005-1017.
    14. Glenn Fox & Alfons Weersink, 1995. "Damage Control and Increasing Returns," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(1), pages 33-39.
    15. Rose, Steven K. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2008. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Stabilization and the Inevitability of Adaptation: Challenges for U.S. Agriculture," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-4.
    16. Xiaoxue Du & Xuejian Wang & Patrick Hatzenbuehler, 2022. "Digital technology in agriculture: a review of issues, applications and methodologies," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(1), pages 95-108, June.
    17. Atanu Saha & C. Richard Shumway & Arthur Havenner, 1997. "The Economics and Econometrics of Damage Control," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(3), pages 773-785.
    18. David Zilberman & Thomas Reardon & Jed Silver & Liang Lu & Amir Heiman, 2022. "From the laboratory to the consumer: Innovation, supply chain, and adoption with applications to natural resources," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(23), pages 2115880119-, June.
    19. David Sunding & Joshua Zivin, 2000. "Insect Population Dynamics, Pesticide Use, and Farmworker Health," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 527-540.
    20. Jean-Daniel M. Saphores, 2000. "The Economic Threshold with a Stochastic Pest Population: A Real Options Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 541-555.
    21. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2013. "When is a “wait and see” approach to invasive species justified?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 235-255.
    22. Hertzler, Greg, 1991. "Dynamic Decisions Under Risk: Applications of Ito Stochastic Control in Agriculture," 1991 Conference (35th), February 11-14, 1991, Armidale, Australia 145902, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    23. Alain Carpentier & Robert D. Weaver, 1997. "Damage Control Productivity: Why Econometrics Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 47-61.
    24. Elbakidze, Levan & Lu, Liang & Eigenbrode, Sanford, 2011. "Evaluating Vector-Virus-Yield Interactions for Peas and Lentils under Climatic Variability: A Limited Dependent Variable Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1-17.
    25. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Shogren, Jason F., 2005. "Managing exotic pests under uncertainty: optimal control actions and bioeconomic investigations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 327-339, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Liang & Elbakidze, Levan, 2012. "Application of Comparative Dynamics in Stochastic Invasive Species Management in Agricultural Production," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125226, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Mitchell, Paul D., 2001. "Additive Versus Proportional Pest Damage Functions: Why Ecology Matters," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20775, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Lu, Liang & Elbakidze, Levan, 2011. "Weather Forecast Based Conditional Pest Management: A Stochastic Optimal Control Investigation," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103655, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2013. "When is a “wait and see” approach to invasive species justified?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 235-255.
    5. Dirksmeyer, W., 2008. "Ist eine Reduzierung des Pflanzenschutzmitteleinsatzes im Freilandgemüsebau möglich? Ergebnisse eines bioökonomischen Simulationsmodells," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 43, March.
    6. Elbakidze, Levan & Lu, Liang & Eigenbrode, Sanford, 2011. "Evaluating Vector-Virus-Yield Interactions for Peas and Lentils under Climatic Variability: A Limited Dependent Variable Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1-17.
    7. Charles Sims & David Finnoff & Jason F. Shogren, 2018. "Taking One for the Team: Is Collective Action More Responsive to Ecological Change?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 589-615, July.
    8. Grogan, Kelly A. & Chakravarty, Shourish, 2017. "The Feasibility of Area-wide Pest Management under Heterogeneity and Uncertainty: The Case of Citrus Health Management Areas," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259188, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Dirksmeyer, Walter, 2007. "Ist Eine Reduzierung Des Pflanzenschutzmitteleinsatzes Im Freilandgemüsebau Möglich? Ergebnisse Eines Bioökonomischen Simulationsmodells," 47th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 26-28, 2007 7592, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    10. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    11. Niklas Möhring & Martina Bozzola & Stefan Hirsch & Robert Finger, 2020. "Are pesticides risk decreasing? The relevance of pesticide indicator choice in empirical analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 429-444, May.
    12. Wechsler, Seth J. & McFadden, Jonathan R. & Smith, David J., 2016. "Into the Weeds: A Structural Model of Herbicide Demand and Glyphosate Resistance on U.S. Corn Farms," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235998, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Konstantinos Chatzimichael & Margarita Genius & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2015. "Health-Damaging Inputs, Workers' Health Status and Productivity Measurement," Working Papers 1505, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    14. Mitchell, Paul D. & Hurley, Terrance M. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Hellmich, Richard L., 2002. "Insuring The Stewardship Of Bt Corn: 'A Carrot' Versus 'A Stick'," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Charles Sims & David Finnoff & Jason Shogren, 2016. "Bioeconomics of invasive species: using real options theory to integrate ecology, economics, and risk management," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 61-70, February.
    16. Cobourn, Kelly M. & Goodhue, Rachael E. & Williams, Jeffrey C., 2009. "The Role of Harvest Timing in Pest Management: Grower Response to Infestation by the California Olive Fruit Fly," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49475, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Robert Romain & Rémy Lambert & Renée Michaud & Claude Lapointe, 2002. "Impact des variables et pratiques agronomiques sur la réduction des dommages: le cas de la pomme de terre au Québec," Post-Print hal-01201029, HAL.
    18. Alfons Oude Lansink & Alain Carpentier, 2001. "Damage Control Productivity: An Input Damage Abatement Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 11-22, September.
    19. Norwood, F. Bailey & Marra, Michele C., 2003. "Pesticide Productivity: Of Bugs and Biases," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Guthrie, Graeme, 2024. "Farm debt and the over-exploitation of natural capital," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:16:p:9832-:d:883840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.