IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v177y2024i5d10.1007_s10584-024-03724-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Michael Bauer

    (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign)

  • Cristian Proistosescu

    (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign)

  • Gernot Wagner

    (Columbia Business School)

Abstract

We develop a financial-economic model for carbon pricing with an explicit representation of decision making under risk and uncertainty that is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report. We show that risk associated with high damages in the long term leads to stringent mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions in the near term, and find that this approach provides economic support for stringent warming targets across a variety of specifications. Our results provide insight into how a systematic incorporation of climate-related risk influences optimal emissions abatement pathways.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2024. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(5), pages 1-27, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03724-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03724-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-024-03724-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-024-03724-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl & Danny Yagan, 2009. "Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 147-174, Fall.
    2. Lawrence Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, 2008. "Policymaking for posterity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 115-140, December.
    3. Martin C. Hänsel & Moritz A. Drupp & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Frikk Nesje & Christian Azar & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Thomas Sterner, 2020. "Climate economics support for the UN climate targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 781-789, August.
    4. Marshall Burke & W. Matthew Davis & Noah S. Diffenbaugh, 2018. "Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7706), pages 549-553, May.
    5. Robert E. Kopp & Rachael Shwom & Gernot Wagner & Jiacan Yuan, 2016. "Tipping elements and climate-economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment," Papers 1603.00850, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    6. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117610, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Lint Barrage & William D. Nordhaus, 2023. "Policies, Projections, and the Social Cost of Carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 Model," NBER Working Papers 31112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Schroyen, Fred & Aarbu, Karl Ove, 2017. "Attitudes towards large income risk in welfare states: an international comparison," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 20/2017, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    10. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
    11. Martin L. Weitzman, 2012. "GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(2), pages 221-244, March.
    12. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. William W. Hogan & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1991. "Productivity Trends and the Cost of Reducing CO2 Emissions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 67-86.
    14. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 703-724, September.
    15. Derek Lemoine & Ivan Rudik, 2017. "Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 117-142, October.
    16. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    17. Derek Lemoine & Ivan Rudik, 2017. "Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 117-142, October.
    18. William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 686-702, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    2. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    5. Stoerk, Thomas & Wagner, Gernot & Ward, Robert E. T., 2018. "Recommendations for improving the treatment of risk and uncertainty in economic estimates of climate impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87957, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Svenn Jensen & Christian P. Traeger & Christian Träger, 2021. "Pricing Climate Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 9196, CESifo.
    7. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117609, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Lint Barrage, 2019. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for William D. Nordhaus," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 884-924, July.
    9. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    10. Dominika Czyz & Karolina Safarzynska, 2023. "Catastrophic Damages and the Optimal Carbon Tax Under Loss Aversion," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(2), pages 303-340, June.
    11. Sterner, Thomas & Ewald, Jens & Sterner, Erik, 2024. "Economists and the climate," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Pindyck, Robert S., 2012. "Uncertain outcomes and climate change policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 289-303.
    13. Sandra Gschnaller, 2020. "The albedo loss from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the social cost of carbon," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2201-2231, December.
    14. Moritz A. Drupp & Martin C. Hänsel, 2021. "Relative Prices and Climate Policy: How the Scarcity of Nonmarket Goods Drives Policy Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 168-201, February.
    15. Fleurbaey, Marc & Zuber, Stéphane, 2015. "Discounting, beyond utilitarianism," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-52.
    16. Christian Traeger, 2014. "Why uncertainty matters: discounting under intertemporal risk aversion and ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(3), pages 627-664, August.
    17. Rick Van der Ploeg & Bas Jacobs, 2010. "Precautionary Climate Change Policies And Optimal Redistribution," OxCarre Working Papers 049, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    18. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. Christian Azar & Jorge García Martín & Daniel JA. Johansson & Thomas Sterner, 2023. "The social cost of methane," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-22, June.
    20. Samuel Jovan Okullo, 2020. "Determining the Social Cost of Carbon: Under Damage and Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(1), pages 79-103, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03724-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.