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Terrorism and international tourism: the case of Germany

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  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.
  • Franke, Bastian
  • Maennig, Wolfgang

Abstract

We analyse how German tourists react to unanticipated shocks that alter their risk perception of selected tourism destinations. Using a difference-in-difference strategy which flexibly accounts for macroeconomic conditions and also addresses potential problems of serial correlation, we isolate significant effects of the 9/11 (2001) terrorist attacks, as well as for the attacks in Egypt (1997), Tunisia (2002), Morocco (2003) and Indonesia (2003). These terror attacks impacted especially on Islamic countries all over the world, indicating a transmission mechanism driven by ethnic and religious proximity. At the same time, tourism into Islamic countries was temporarily substituted by tourism to (south) European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Franke, Bastian & Maennig, Wolfgang, 2015. "Terrorism and international tourism: the case of Germany," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 56847, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:56847
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    2. Agarwal, Sheela & Page, Stephen J. & Mawby, Rob, 2021. "Tourist security, terrorism risk management and tourist safety," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Endrich, Marek, 2020. "The good tourist, the bad refugee and the ugly German: Xenophobic activities and tourism," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224604, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Seabra, Claudia & Reis, Pedro & Abrantes, José Luís, 2020. "The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Gilboa, Shaked & Seger-Guttmann, Tali & Partouche-Sebban, Judith, 2022. "Increasing customer loyalty and WOM in an age of terror: Cross-cultural development and validation of the customers’ reactions to terror scale (CRTS)," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Ana Maria Caldeira & Cláudia Seabra & Miral Sabry AlAshry, 2022. "Contrasting the COVID-19 Effects on Tourism Safety Perceptions and Coping Behavior among Young People during Two Pandemic Waves: Evidence from Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, June.
    7. Marina Segura & Rosa Lopez-Gigosos & Eloisa Mariscal-Lopez & Mario Gutierrez-Bedmar & Alberto Mariscal, 2019. "Trends in the travelers’ demand for pre-travel medical advice at a Spanish International Vaccination Center between 2000 and 2017," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-13, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    terrorism; 9/11; Islamic countries; tourism demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

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