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Endogenous mobility in pandemics: theory and evidence from the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Xiaoguang
  • Huang, Hanwei
  • Ju, Jiandong
  • Sun, Ruoyan
  • Zhang, Jialiang

Abstract

We study infectious diseases in a spatial epidemiology model with forward-looking individuals who weigh disease environments against economic opportunities when moving across regions. This endogenous mobility allows regions to share risk and health resources, resulting in positive epidemiological externalities for regions with high R0s. We develop the Normalized Hat Algebra to analyze disease and mobility dynamics. Applying our model to US data, we find that cross-state mobility controls that hinder risk and resource sharing increase COVID-19 deaths and decrease social welfare. Conversely, by enabling "self-containment" and "self-healing," endogenous mobility reduces COVID-19 infections by 27.6% and deaths by 22.1%.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Xiaoguang & Huang, Hanwei & Ju, Jiandong & Sun, Ruoyan & Zhang, Jialiang, 2024. "Endogenous mobility in pandemics: theory and evidence from the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126830, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:126830
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sird model; spatial economy; endogenous mobility; basic reproduction number; normalized hat algebra; containment policies; Covid-19; coronavirus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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