IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/121379.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long social distancing

Author

Listed:
  • Barrero, Jose Maria
  • Bloom, Nicholas
  • Davis, Steven J.

Abstract

Many working-age Americans say they will continue some forms of social distancing after the COVID-19 pandemic ends. We uncover this long social distancing phenomenon in our monthly Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. It is stronger among older persons, the less educated, and those who live with or care for persons at high risk from infectious diseases. Regression models fit to individual-level data suggest that social distancing lowered labor force participation by 2.4 percentage points in 2022, 1.2 points on an earnings-weighted basis. Daily interactions with at-risk persons and long COVID experiences lead to larger drags on participation. When combined with simple equilibrium models, our results imply that the social-distancing drag on participation reduced U.S. output by $205 billion in 2022, shrank the college wage premium by 2.1 percentage points, and modestly steepened the cross-sectional age-wage profile. Our data also say that social distancing intentions overlap with, but are broader than, infection worries. Drawing on self-assessed causal effects in a separate analysis, we estimate that infection worries lowered participation by one percentage point as of late 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J., 2023. "Long social distancing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121379, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:121379
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/121379/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    2. R. Jason Faberman & Andreas I. Mueller & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "Has the Willingness to Work Fallen During the Pandemic?," Working Paper Series WP 2022-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Sarah Dryhurst & Claudia R. Schneider & John Kerr & Alexandra L. J. Freeman & Gabriel Recchia & Anne Marthe van der Bles & David Spiegelhalter & Sander van der Linden, 2020. "Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7-8), pages 994-1006, August.
    4. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Mathias Dolls & Pablo Zarate, 2022. "Working from Home Around the World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 53(2 (Fall)), pages 281-360.
    5. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    6. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746.
    7. Maria Barrero, Jose & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J., 2021. "Internet access and its implications for productivity, inequality and resilience," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113869, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "How to Run Surveys: A Guide to Creating Your Own Identifying Variation and Revealing the Invisible," NBER Working Papers 30527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2022. "Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. Susan Athey & Kristen Grabarz & Michael Luca & Nils Wernerfelt, 2022. "The Effectiveness of Digital Interventions on COVID-19 Attitudes and Beliefs," Papers 2206.10214, arXiv.org.
    12. Susan Athey & Kristen Grabarz & Michael Luca & Nils Wernerfelt, 2023. "Digital public health interventions at scale: The impact of social media advertising on beliefs and outcomes related to COVID vaccines," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(5), pages 2208110120-, January.
    13. Antonio Ciccone & Giovanni Peri, 2005. "Long-Run Substitutability Between More and Less Educated Workers: Evidence from U.S. States, 1950-1990," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 652-663, November.
    14. Susan Cherry & Erica Jiang & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2021. "Government and Private Household Debt Relief during COVID-19," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 141-221.
    15. Domash, Alex & Summers, Lawrence H., 2022. "A labor market view on the risks of a U.S. hard landing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 758-767.
    16. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2021. "What Is behind the Global Jump in Personal Saving during the Pandemic?," Liberty Street Economics 20210414, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Faberman, R. Jason & Mueller, Andreas I. & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2022. "Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    19. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Andrey Simonov & Szymon Sacher & Jean-Pierre Dube & Shirsho Biswas, 2020. "The Persuasive Effect of Fox News: Non-Compliance with Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2020-67, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    21. David Autor & Arindrajit Dube & Annie McGrew, 2023. "The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 31010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Jason Furman & Melissa Schettini Kearney & Wilson Powell, 2021. "The Role of Childcare Challenges in the US Jobs Market Recovery During the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Simon Mongey & Laura Pilossoph & Alexander Weinberg, 2021. "Which workers bear the burden of social distancing?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 509-526, September.
    24. Ash, Elliott & Galletta, Sergio & Hangartner, Dominik & Margalit, Yotam & Pinna, Matteo, 2024. "The Effect of Fox News on Health Behavior during COVID-19," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 275-284, April.
    25. Kate E. Jones & Nikkita G. Patel & Marc A. Levy & Adam Storeygard & Deborah Balk & John L. Gittleman & Peter Daszak, 2008. "Global trends in emerging infectious diseases," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7181), pages 990-993, February.
    26. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Mathias Dolls & Pablo Zarate, 2022. "Working from Home Around the World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 53(2 (Fall)), pages 281-360.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burdett, Ashley & Etheridge, Ben & Tang, Li & Wang, Yikai, 2024. "Worker productivity during Covid-19 and adaptation to working from home," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. Joseph Richardson, 2023. "Health Risks and Labour Supply," Working Papers 379420583, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Bergeaud, Antonin & Eyméoud, Jean-Benoît & Garcia, Thomas & Henricot, Dorian, 2023. "Working from home and corporate real estate," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Maxim Ananyev & Michael Poyker & Yuan Tian, 2021. "The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 775-802, July.
    5. Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Hansen, Stephen & Lambert, Peter John & Sadun, Raffaella & Taska, Bledi, 2023. "Remote work across jobs, companies and space," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121302, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Erdsiek, Daniel & Rost, Vincent, 2023. "How do managers form their expectations about working from home? Survey experiments on the perception of productivity," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-018, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Jean-Marc Bourgeon & José de Sousa & Alexis Noir-Luhalwe, 2022. "Social Distancing and Risk Taking: Evidence from a Team Game Show [Distanciation sociale et prise de risque : Les résultats d'un jeu d'équipe]," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03792423, HAL.
    8. Vij, Akshay & Souza, Flavio F. & Barrie, Helen & Anilan, V. & Sarmiento, Sergio & Washington, Lynette, 2023. "Employee preferences for working from home in Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 782-800.
    9. Behrens, Kristian & Kichko, Sergei & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2024. "Working from home: Too much of a good thing?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Lorenzo Aldeco Leo & Alejandrina Salcedo, 2024. "Remote Work and High Proximity Employment in Mexico," Working Papers 2024-17, Banco de México.
    11. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2022. "Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Benjamin Cowan, 2024. "Time use, college attainment, and the working-from-home revolution," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-27, September.
    13. Gokan,Toshitaka & Kichko,Sergei & Matheson,Jesse A & Thisse,Jacques-François, 2022. "How the rise of teleworking will reshape labor markets and cities?," IDE Discussion Papers 868, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    14. Jesse Matheson & Brendon McConnell & James Rockey & Argyris Sakalis, 2023. "Do Remote Workers Deter Neighborhood Crime? Evidence from the Rise of Working from Home," Working Papers 2023020, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    15. Tian, Yuan & Caballero, Maria Esther & Kovak, Brian K., 2022. "Social learning along international migrant networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 103-121.
    16. Joe Piacentini & Harley Frazis & Peter B. Meyer & Michael Schultz & Leo Sveikauskas, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets and Inequality," Economic Working Papers 551, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    17. Duanyi Yang & Erin L. Kelly & Laura D. Kubzansky & Lisa Berkman, 2023. "Working from Home and Worker Well-being: New Evidence from Germany," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(3), pages 504-531, May.
    18. repec:ags:aaea22:335486 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Guillaume Gueguen & Claudia Senik, 2023. "Adopting telework: The causal impact of working from home on subjective well‐being," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 832-868, December.
    20. Ganguli, Ina & Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim & Khwaja, Asim Ijaz & Stemper, Samuel & Zafar, Basit, 2024. "Economic shocks and skill acquisition: Evidence from a national online learning platform at the onset of COVID-19," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    21. Schulz, Rainer & Watson, Verity & Wersing, Martin, 2023. "Teleworking and housing demand," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; social distancing; working from home; productivity; coronavirus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:121379. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.