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Interdependence between core and peripheries of the European economy: secular stagnation and growth in the Western Balkans

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  • Bartlett, Will
  • Prica, Ivana

Abstract

European countries are economically dependent upon each other. This paper therefore embeds the analysis of the Western Balkan countries within a wider perspective of the European economy as a whole. It combines a simple core-periphery model with an under-consumption model to provide an explanation of the emergence of secular stagnation, the dependency relationships between the core and peripheries of the European economy, and the spillover effects of Eurozone crisis to the Western Balkans. Due to tendencies to under-consumption, the core countries have been vulnerable to secular stagnation. In order to overcome this tendency within the Eurozone they are dependent on export revenues from the peripheries to sustain their economic growth. This has led to high trade and current account deficits during the boom and placed the peripheries in a highly vulnerable position during the recession period. Financialisation of the European economy has emerged as a response to the tendency towards secular stagnation, as the provision of consumer credit stimulated demand and temporarily overcame under-consumption tendencies. The paper argues that continuing austerity, as a method to create internal devaluation, is unlikely to succeed as a means to extricate the periphery countries from the crisis. Given the dependencies of the European economies upon one another, a possibly better way out of the current period of low growth and stagnation would be a coordinated fiscal expansion to stimulate domestic and Europe-wide demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartlett, Will & Prica, Ivana, 2017. "Interdependence between core and peripheries of the European economy: secular stagnation and growth in the Western Balkans," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117451, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:117451
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/117451/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas I. Palley, 2013. "Financialization: What It Is and Why It Matters," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Financialization, chapter 2, pages 17-40, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Martin Sokol, 2001. "Central and Eastern Europe a Decade After the Fall of State-socialism: Regional Dimensions of Transition Processes," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 645-655.
    3. Christodoulakis, Nicos & Leventi, Chrysa & Matsaganis, Manos & Monastiriotis, Vassilis, 2011. "The Greek crisis in focus: austerity, recession and paths to recovery," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 38380, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Błach & Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala & Joanna Trzęsiok, 2020. "Innovation in SMEs and Financing Mix," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Petrović, Pavle & Gligorić Matić, Mirjana, 2023. "Manufacturing productivity in the EU: Why have Central and Eastern European countries converged and Southern EU countries have not?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 166-183.
    3. Ines Kersan-Škabić, 2016. "Is Internal Devaluation Policy In The Eu Effective?," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(211), pages 29-46, October -.
    4. Sofia GOUVEIA & Leonida CORREIA & Patrícia MARTINS, 2020. "European integration and its effects on population in border and peripheral regions," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 8-27, November.
    5. Krisztina Soreg & Guillermo Bermudez-Gonzalez, 2021. "Measuring the Socioeconomic Development of Selected Balkan Countries and Hungary: A Comparative Analysis for Sustainable Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Maciej Stefański, 2020. "To What Extent does Convergence Explain the Slowdown in Potential Growth of the CEE Countries Following the Global Financial Crisis?," KAE Working Papers 2020-058, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    7. Velimir Bole & Miha Dominko & Ada Guštin Habuš & Janez Prašnikar, 2019. "Countries Of Former Yugoslavia: Periphery Vs. Super-Periphery In The Great Recession And Beyond," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(223), pages 11-38, October –.
    8. Gräbner, Claudius & Hafele, Jakob, 2020. "The emergence of core-periphery structures in the European Union: A complexity perspective," ZOE Discussion Papers 6, ZOE. institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
    9. Thaer Alhalabi & Vitor Castro & Justine Wood, 2023. "The relationship between excessive lending, risk premium and risk‐taking: Evidence from European banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 448-471, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    core-periphery; secular stagnation; Western Balkans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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