IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2020-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial conditions and the risks to economic growth in the United States since 1875

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick J. Coe
  • Shaun P. Vahey

Abstract

We explore the historical relationship between financial conditions and real economic growth for quarterly U.S. data from 1875 to 2017 with a flexible empirical copula modelling methodology. We compare specifications with both linear and non-linear dependence, and with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian marginal distributions. Our results indicate strong statistical support for models that are both non-Gaussian and nonlinear for our historical data, with considerable heterogeneity across sub-samples. We demonstrate that ignoring the contribution of financial conditions typically understates the conditional downside risks to economic growth in crises. For example, accounting for financial conditions more than doubles the probability of negative growth in the year following the 1929 stock market crash.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick J. Coe & Shaun P. Vahey, 2020. "Financial conditions and the risks to economic growth in the United States since 1875," CAMA Working Papers 2020-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-04/36_2020_coe_vahey.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    2. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Staff Reports 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Tony Chernis & Patrick J. Coe & Shaun P. Vahey, 2023. "Reassessing the dependence between economic growth and financial conditions since 1973," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 260-267, March.
    4. Martin Gachter & Elias Hasler & Florian Huber, 2023. "A tale of two tails: 130 years of growth-at-risk," Papers 2302.08920, arXiv.org.
    5. Adams, Patrick A. & Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1173-1191.
    6. Garratt, Anthony & Henckel, Timo & Vahey, Shaun P., 2023. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 736-753.
    7. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2023. "The term effect of financial cycle variables on GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probabilities of economic events; Vulnerable growth; Growth at risk; Great Depression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.