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Demographic Pressure in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Marga Peeters
  • Loek Groot

Abstract

On top of the sovereign debt crisis in the European Union, demographic change is exerting enormous pressure on public finances. We analyse four policy options: lowering pension benefits, increasing labour market participation of the native population, immigration and participation of older people. Our results show that the most publically indebted EU economies face the highest increases in public spending on the retiring baby boom generations over the coming decades. Fortunately for these economies, it turns out that adjusting their labour market participation is easier than for their neighbouring economies within the EU. Increasing labour market participation to 60% keeps several countries largely out of the woods.

Suggested Citation

  • Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "Demographic Pressure in the European Union," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2012_11
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    File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2012_11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "A Global View On Demographic Pressure And Labour Market Participation," Journal of Global Economy, Research Centre for Social Sciences,Mumbai, India, vol. 8(2), pages 165-194, June.
    2. Coen Teulings & Casper Vries, 2006. "Generational Accounting, Solidarity and Pension Losses," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 63-83, March.
    3. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Europe's Demographic Deficit," Munich Reprints in Economics 934, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Meijdam, Lex & Verbon, Harrie A A, 1997. "Aging and Public Pensions in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 29-42, January.
    5. Michael A. Clemens, 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 83-106, Summer.
    6. Auerbach, Alan J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Leibfritz, Willi (ed.), 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226032139, April.
    7. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
    8. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "Demographic Change Across the Globe," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 13(2), pages 75-98, April.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number auer99-1, February.
    10. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Introduction to "Generational Accounting around the World"," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 1-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; fiscal policy; labour; ageing; European Union.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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