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Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change

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  • Chen, Yu-Fu
  • Funke, Michael
  • Glanemann, Nicole

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Knightian uncertainty upon optimal climate policy through the prism of a continuous-time real option modelling framework. We analytically determine optimal intertemporal climate policies under ambiguous assessments of climate damages. Additionally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the properties of the model. The results indicate that increasing Knightian uncertainty accelerates climate policy, i.e. policy makers become more reluctant to postpone the timing of climate policies into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Glanemann, Nicole, 2011. "Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-64, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:352
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2011. "Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 262, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    2. Marc Chesney & Pierre Lasserre & Bruno Troja, 2017. "Mitigating global warming: a real options approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 465-506, August.
    3. Glanemann, Nicole, 2014. "The Optimal Climate Policy of Mitigation and AdaptationːA Real Options Theory Perspective," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 15, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Knightian uncertainty; K-ambiguity; real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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