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When to Leave a Monetary Union: Now or Later?

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  • Frank Strobel

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

Using a two-country model of monetary union where policymakers minimize the continuous-time equivalent of a Barro-Gordon-type loss function, we examine the value of the option of monetary break-up when the national preference parameters associated with an inflationary surprise follow correlated geometric Brownian motions. We derive the critical level of the ratio of these parameters that triggers a move to monetary disintegration and find that a country will be willing to return to monetary independence only if the other country's relative inflation preferences are strictly, and potentially substantially, greater than a benchmark value depending on the cost of monetary break-up alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Strobel, 2000. "When to Leave a Monetary Union: Now or Later?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0961, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:0961
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Strobel, F., 1999. "Monetary Integration, Stochastic Inflation Preferences and the Value of Waiting," Discussion Papers 99-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    5. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
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