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The Risk-Neutral Measure and Option Pricing under Log-Stable Uncertainty

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  • J. Huston McCulloch

Abstract

The fact that the expected payoffs on assets and call options are infinite under most log-stable distributions led Paul Samuelson and Robert Merton to conjecture that assets and derivatives could not be reasonably priced under these distributions, despite their many other attractive features. This paper demonstrates that when the observed distribution of future prices is log-stable, the Risk Neutral Measure (RNM) under which asset and derivative prices may be computed as expectations is not itself log-stable in the problematic cases. Instead, the RNM is determined by the convolution of two densities, one negatively skewed stable, and the other an exponentially tilted positively skewed stable. The resulting RNM gives finite expected payoffs, and therefore demonstrates that these fears were in fact unfounded. Carr and Madan (1999) have shown how the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) can be used to quickly evaluate options directly from the characteristic function of any RNM. The log-stable RNM characteristic function presented here therefore greatly facilitates the pricing of options on log-stable assets, by means of this new methodology, provided a Romberg adaptation of the FFT is employed. The full paper is at .

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  • J. Huston McCulloch, 2004. "The Risk-Neutral Measure and Option Pricing under Log-Stable Uncertainty," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 428, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:428
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Matteo Bonato, 2012. "Modeling fat tails in stock returns: a multivariate stable-GARCH approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 499-521, September.
    3. Guido VENIER, 2008. "A New Model For Stock Price Movements," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 329-350.
    4. Ma, Chao & Ma, Qinghua & Yao, Haixiang & Hou, Tiancheng, 2018. "An accurate European option pricing model under Fractional Stable Process based on Feynman Path Integral," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 494(C), pages 87-117.
    5. Przemys{l}aw Repetowicz & Peter Richmond, 2006. "Option pricing with log-stable L\'{e}vy processes," Papers math/0612691, arXiv.org.
    6. Lombardi, Marco J. & Veredas, David, 2009. "Indirect estimation of elliptical stable distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2309-2324, April.
    7. Climent Hernández José Antonio & Venegas Martínez Francisco, 2013. "Valuación de opciones sobre subyacentes con rendimientos a-estables," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 58(4), pages 119-150, octubre-d.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stable distributions; risk-neutral measure; pricing kernel; option pricing; FFT; Romberg FFT;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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