IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20242985.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The inflationary consequences of prioritising central bank profits

Author

Listed:
  • Gebauer, Stefan
  • Pool, Sebastiaan
  • Schumacher, Julian

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of rising interest rates on central bank profitability. Using a stylized income model, we demonstrate that changes in interest rates in combination with expansive balance sheet policies introduce a cyclical component into the central bank’s profit and loss statement. Ourfindings reveal, however, that while the interplay of such policies may dampen short-term profitability if interest rates rise, they do not undermine a central bank’s financial strength, because higher interest rates also raise the value of future seigniorage income. Using data for the euro area, we quantify the consequences for inflation of setting interest rates aimed at mitigating financial losses, showing that such a strategy would lead to substantially higher inflation rates. Overall, our findings confirm that a central bank’s willingness to accept temporary losses reflects a commitment to price stability, rather than a hindrance. JEL Classification: E31, E43, E52, E58, E63

Suggested Citation

  • Gebauer, Stefan & Pool, Sebastiaan & Schumacher, Julian, 2024. "The inflationary consequences of prioritising central bank profits," Working Paper Series 2985, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242985
    Note: 2604030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2985~9a635ec5db.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Del Negro, Marco & Sims, Christopher A., 2015. "When does a central bank׳s balance sheet require fiscal support?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2016. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Monetary Policy and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1329-1371.
    3. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 135-140, May.
    4. Brand, Claus & Lisack, Noëmie & Mazelis, Falk, 2024. "Estimates of the natural interest rate for the euro area: an update," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    5. Robert E. Hall & Ricardo Reis, 2015. "Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking," NBER Working Papers 21173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mr. Peter Stella, 2008. "Central Bank Financial Strength, Policy Constraints and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2008/049, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Fornaro, Luca & Grosse Steffen, Christoph, 2024. "Fragmented Monetary Unions," CEPR Discussion Papers 19171, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Bindseil, Ulrich, 2014. "Monetary Policy Operations and the Financial System," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716907.
    9. Alain Ize, 2005. "Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 289-310, September.
    10. Mr. Peter Stella & Mr. Ulrich H Klueh, 2008. "Central Bank Financial Strength and Policy Performance: An Econometric Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 2008/176, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Sona Benecka & Tomas Holub & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Ivana Kubicova, 2012. "Does Central Bank Financial Strength Matter for Inflation? An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 2012/03, Czech National Bank.
    12. Mr. Alain Ize, 2005. "Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach," IMF Working Papers 2005/015, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Long, Jamie & Fisher, Paul, 2024. "Central bank profit distribution and recapitalisation," Bank of England working papers 1069, Bank of England.
    14. Coenen, Günter & Karadi, Peter & Schmidt, Sebastian & Warne, Anders, 2018. "The New Area-Wide Model II: an extended version of the ECB’s micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector," Working Paper Series 2200, European Central Bank.
    15. Mr. Peter Stella, 1997. "Do Central Banks Need Capital?," IMF Working Papers 1997/083, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia & Jan Frie, 2023. "Raising Rates with a Large Balance Sheet: The Eurosystem’s Net Income and its Fiscal Implications," IMF Working Papers 2023/145, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Perera, Anil & Ralston, Deborah & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2013. "Central bank financial strength and inflation: Is there a robust link?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 399-414.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69, March.
    2. Julien Pinter, 2018. "Does Central Bank Financial Strength Really Matter for Inflation? The Key Role of the Fiscal Support," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 911-952, November.
    3. Atsushi Tanaka, 2021. "Central Bank Capital and Credibility: A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 249-262, June.
    4. Lixin Sun, 2020. "On the People’s Bank of China’s Financial Strength and Policy Outcomes," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(3), pages 135-161.
    5. Atsushi Tanaka, 2020. "Central Bank Capital and Credibility: A Literature Survey," Discussion Paper Series 208, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2020.
    6. Michele Cavallo & Marco Del Negro & W. Scott Frame & Jamie Grasing & Benjamin A. Malin & Carlo Rosa, 2019. "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 255-306, December.
    7. Atsushi Tanaka, 2020. "Monetary Base Controllability after an Exit from Quantitative Easing," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(3), pages 123-134.
    8. Atsushi Tanaka, 2018. "Monetary Base Controllability after an Exit from Quantitative Easing," Discussion Paper Series 181, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jul 2018.
    9. Jorge E. Restrepo L. & Luis Salomó S. & Rodrigo O. Valdés P., 2009. "Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy and Central Bank Capitalization," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(1), pages 5-38, April.
    10. Mr. Andrew J Swiston & Ms. Florencia Frantischek & Mr. Przemek Gajdeczka & Alexander Herman, 2014. "Central Bank Financial Strength in Central America and the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2014/087, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2020. "Central Bank Equity as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(1), pages 49-68, March.
    12. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    13. Stephen Quinn & William Roberds, 2016. "Death of a Reserve Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 63-103, December.
    14. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2018. "Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," Working Papers 2018/10, Czech National Bank.
    15. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Central Bank Financial Strength and Inflation: A Meta-Analysis," Research and Policy Notes 2018/01, Czech National Bank.
    16. Matteo Bonetti & Dirk Broeders & Damiaan Chen & Daniel Dimitrov, 2024. "Central Bank Capital and Shareholder Relationship," Working Papers 809, DNB.
    17. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Central Bank Capital as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Working Papers IES 2018/25, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2018.
    18. Schwarz Claudia & Karakitsos Polychronis & Merriman Niall & Studener Werner, 2015. "Why Accounting Matters: A Central Bank Perspective," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, March.
    19. Caballero, Diego & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 283-297.
    20. Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2017. "(Why) Do Central Banks Care About Their Profits?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6546, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank independence; central bank profitability; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242985. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.